i'm beginning to think

[Suff]

That if I lived in Turkey I would be relocating.

Tell me if I'm too paranoid, but the attacks of IS on Kurdish towns, right next to the Turkish border, make no sense to me at all.

Unless.

They intend to ferment civil war in Turkey via the Kurdish Workers Party. By attacking Kurds in Syria, right on the border, they have already caused riots in Turkey. Kurdish politics in Turkey are always like a powder keg. But I wonder if they intend to blow the lid off then infiltrate both people and weapons over the border to broaden the problem.

Divide and rule as they say.

I'm beginning to be sure it's what they are at. However I think they have miscalculated the response if they try it and are caught. Turkey possesses a large, powerful and capable Army. They are troops on the ground and would go in under US air cover under the banner of NATO. No need of UN resolutions, if you attack one nation in NATO, you attack them all.

I'm probably more sensitive to this because a member of my extended family is a Kurd.

Another one to watch....

[manxie]

I am dreading the next 12 months particularly.

As you say a powder keg waiting to blow.

As has been said elsewhere time for combined forces boots on the ground with muslim and arab support

Manxie

[victor]

agree with Suff -if Turkey is attacked it brings in NATO

i also wonder what the outcome would be if it boils over into ISRAEL

[Diflower]

My immediate thought was that they must be trying to stir something up in Turkey, as I could see no other reason for it, but wondered if I was being naive - maybe not

[Aggers]

I think the whole world should be worried enough to take some decisive action.

Action, not words.

[Suff]

It has begun. The PKK have clashed with Turkish military, angry at them taking no action to help Kurds besieged in Syria. The Turkish military have attacked the PKK with air power. They’ve refused to attack terrorists causing mayhem on their border and have refused to aid the US with logistical support, but they are willing to ignite a civil war with the Turkish Kurds, with whom they are two years into a peace process.

The conflict with Turkish Kurds has been going on for at least 30 years with 40,000 people dead over it. This is likely to flash southern Turkey into civil war. Something we already know IS is adept at turning into an advantage.

The idiots in Ankara are just as idiotic as the idiots all over the world. Too busy looking at the road surface to see the 40 ton truck, out of control and coming straight for them.

Well, at least if they descend into civil war we won’t have to talk about EU accession for Turkey. If it becomes big enough, then Greece might decide the time is right to take back Northern Cyprus… Which would destabilise the region even more.

Of course the US would not be bound to help Turkey with a civil war as it is not a cross border action. So only when IS started raising their flag and making it a war of aggression between two “nations”, would the US and the rest of NATO, be bound to assist. Of course if Greece took back Northern Cyprus and Turkey then opened a war on two fronts by attacking Greece, then the US would feel duty bound to pull out of Turkey and support Greece. Effectively tearing NATO apart.

I wonder if Putin is supplying IS on the quiet and also giving them tactical military support…

So dies our modern, post Cold War, world with some kind of security for our children….

[Workingman]

I do not really see what Turkey can do regarding the Syrian Kurds in Kobane. Yes, the place is in its back yard, right on the border, but it is in Syria. Turkey might well be a member of the coalition to fight IS, but none of its members have a mandate to have boots on the ground in Syria - it would be an act of aggression.

Overflying Syria to attack IS is a different matter, and on that score Turkey has openend Incirclik Air Base and its airspace to the coalition. Under normal circumstances these flights would also be an act of aggression, but these are not normal circumstances. Assad has a fairly modern Air Force and its planes could well engage with coalition planes, but they do not, why is that? Could it be that the coalition are doing Assad's job for him? IS is as much a foe of Syria as it is to the coalition so Assad lets the coalition get on with it.

Another point is this: Turkey is to allow 4,000 Syrians to be trained on its territory. A lot of those fighters will be Syrian Kurds, so Turkey is helping. It also has to be remembered that Turkey has porous borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran and each of those places is home to many Kurds. If or when the Syrian crisis is resolved Turkey will still be stuck with the Kurdish problem. Unlike the British and Americans who can pack up and go home, thousnads of miles away, Turkey gets to stay where it is and deal with the aftermath. Is it any wonder they are being cautious?

[Suff]

Finally Turkey has opened Incirclik air base. But not without demands. Also they refused to intervene in the Syrian border affair without guarantees that would damage the Assad regime more. Something nobody else is doing.

It appears that Turkey would be happier with IS on it's border than Syrian Kurds. In fact, I'm pretty sure, senior Generals would welcome a massacre in Kobane. Solve a few problems for them.

As for Kurds in the 4,000 Syrians being trained?? So far they have taken anyone fleeing over the border, that they believe to be members of the Syrian side of the Kurdish Workers Party and thrown then in jail. Believe, mark you, not know. We all know how bad Turkish citizens rights abuse is. Turkey is acting as if this is all some political game in which they can play politics. Rather than realising the truth. Which is that it is a humanitarian crisis which is likely to incite a civil war within it's own borders. Turkey being just one more. When, not if, that civil war happens, IS and many other Jihadists, will flood over the border with weapons, skills and technique.

Reports from Kobane state that IS have managed to liberate tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery from Iraqi and Syrian armouries. Turkey would not be facing a few hundred malcontents with a few rifles and a few RPG's. They'd be facing an army. An army who don't do it for pay or for country. They do it for their God and their religion....

Turkey want's to think long and hard about the game it is playing. Because the best bet IS has is to incite civil war in Turkey and, as far as I can see, they have smoke now and it's likely to burst into flames pretty quickly....

[Workingman]

So what can Turkey do?

It cannot send troops in, as that would be an act of aggression with no support from NATO. It has opened its airspace to the coalition (which is not NATO) and allowed the use of Incirclik. It is allowing the training of Syrians who are against Assad. What the Hell else can it do? Re: Incirclik: It need not have allowed coalition forces to use it, we have RAF Akrotiri and it is not that much further away.

IS might well have commandeered a few tanks and RPGs from Iraqi and Syrian bases, but nobody will supply them with spares when they break down..... and they do, on a regular basis.

IS does not have an army, in the conventional sense, it is a bunch of rogues with some modern equipment who nobody will service. Once their limited heavy armour breaks or runs out of ammo, and it will, IS is stuffed. It certainly does not have an air force. Should IS cross the border into Turkey it will be wiped out. Turkey has one of the largest standing armies in the world, and it is well equipped.

The Kurds? They are an issue for later. Some of them want autonomy within the existing states where they live, others want a seperate Kurdish state.

[Suff]

The Turks could start by allowing Kurds over the border instead of leaving dying fighters on the other side of the border. They could also allow weapons and support logistics to the Kurds. But, of course, they see this as the same as the US arming the Taliban in Afghanistan…..

There is a LOT they could be doing but they are, instead, continuing to follow an internal track of suppression of the Turkish Kurds. Probably leading to civil war. Why not fight if you see that your future is in the hands of such people?

Haven’t we seen enough civil war in the Islamic lands through sheer stupidity of the leaders and the west?