I don't know how probable probable is! But I think its more probable than it was last time!!
A few months ago I was called to school as she had hurt her ankle (you probably remember - I think I was moaning about school calling me for ever little thing). I picked her up and off we went to the minor injuries unit where they said it was sprained. Three days later she was still in loads of pain so we went back and they xray-d it. Only the nurse at the minor injuries department looked at it that time and said she thought that not only was it fractured but that L had an extra bone in her foot. She sent us off with an appointment to the fracture clinic the next day. Got there only to be told, once the orthopedic doctor had looked at it, that no it wasn't fractured and no she doesn't have an extra bone. It was just badly sprained and would take weeks to get better (it did).
This time the xray has been looked at by the radiologist rather than the nurse. Though it still hasn't been looked at by the orthopedic doctor - that'll happen on Monday. So there is still a good chance that we will get there to be told it is fine. Although, the nurse (and google) did say that a scaphoid fracture often doesn't show up until 10 to 14 days after the accident.