New super El Nino possible

[Suff]

Hi all, thought I'd drop this one off for Frank and others to chew on. Not much time, late and doing something else.

It appears that there is a New super el nino brewing out in the pacific. It's not guaranteed at the moment, but the probability has gone up from <50% in December to over 60% in February and the confidence is growing rather than falling.

The last one was 1997/8. It produced those massively high global temperatures that are used to "prove" that Global Warming has stopped.

Well if this one happens, it will be "proof" all over again, that global warming peaks are high indeed. Followed by 17 years of finger pointing about how it's "cooled again".

What it will mean is higher food prices. On top of what is already a bad situation.

C'est la vie.

Enjoy....

[saundra]

morning suff i hope all is well

[Kaz]

It is good to see you again xxx

[Aggers]

Hi, Suff.

It's good to hear from you again. Hope you are getting better now.

I see on the news this morning that the scientific world is now convinced that global warming is
here to stay and is irreversible, which is what some of us have been saying for years.

[victor]

morning suff,


but surely global warming got rid of the ice age? caused by?

it's a naturally occuring event and we ain't gonna be here forever--we are just another species

[Workingman]

I have been reading the reporting from the IPCC's latest survey/research, especially the comments from the public: two things are very apparent.

The first problem is with the description "Global Warming". I never liked it and I said so, I always knew that it would be argued against, and I was right. Come the cold winter of 2010 and people were asking: "So this is Global Warming, give me a break?" Eventually the phrase morphed into "climate change" with the consequent accusations of 'moving the goalposts'; a lose-lose situation. Those suspicions will be hard to shift.

The second is that people are confused between "climate" and "weather" and how they differ. They are either misused or used interchangeably as though they are one and the same. C'est la...

So, a super El Niño (warm) is brewing - we are currently at the end of a La Niña (cold) phase. If it continues to develop as it is, N. America can expect a much warmer and wetter winter than is usual, and a cooler but drier summer - California is already in a multi-year drought remember. The W. coast of the Pacific can expect extremely violent typhoons next season after a dryish summer. We in Europe could be in for a very cold winter, but it will depend on the jetstream and that will depend on how it develops over N.America, how the North Atlantic Oscillation reacts to the El Niño effects on the seas and overall weather, and how strong the Siberian High becomes.

Packing a suitcase for a holiday is going to be such a problem!

[TheOstrich]

I'm not quite sure from that article whether an El Nino event causes a greater likelihood of catastrophic storms hitting the Philippines, Taiwan, China - or effectively supresses them. Any views, Suff?

[TheOstrich]

Packing a suitcase for a holiday is going to be such a problem!

Now't wrong with Blackpool ......... oh, I forgot the fracking!

[molly]

Hi Suff,

Nice to see you back………how are things?

[cromwell]

Packing a suitcase for a holiday is going to be such a problem!

Now't wrong with Blackpool ......... oh, I forgot the fracking!

Indeed. If fracking in Lancashire causes Blackpool to sink beneath the chilly waves of the Irish Sea, it can't be all bad...