Boeing manages to launch starliner

[Workingman]

At its nearest Mars is 33 million miles from Earth, at it furthest it is 250 millinon miles away. We get a good shot every two years or thereabouts. It has no magnetosphere to protect it / us, did I mention that?

Yes, we do need to leave Earth, and our technology might get us there if we can advance, but our population growth limits that advancement.

There are no planets or moons in the Solar System able to sustain life, so we have to look elsehwere.

Our nearest neighbour. Proxima Centauri, 4ly away offers nothing. Gliese 12b is the nearest earth-like exoplant and is 40ly away. To get to PC would take 6,300 years with current technology, 63,000 years to Gliese. The numbers of breeding pairs on each journey is 49, PC, and 490, Gliese. 500 people is a big spaceship.

At present we do not have the technology to do any of that so we might be wise to look after planet earth until we can. 8bn of us us, and growing, are depending upon it.

[Suff]

At present we do not have the technology to do any of that so we might be wise to look after planet earth until we can. 8bn of us us, and growing, are depending upon it.

We should look after planet earth in all cases. But it doesn't give us the CYA factor from an E.L.E.

Elon was giving some additional facts last night. 2-4 month transit every two years. Thousands of ships every two years. 10m tons of cargo and 1m people overall.

They intend to take the boring machines that TBC is working on and use them to make tunnels under Mars so that people can avoid the radiation.

The interesting fact is that within 6-9 months Starship will be fully operational to start lobbing stuff at Mars in fire and forget mode whilst landing the boosters for another lift. Things are moving at an incredible rate. IFT-5 in about a month, they need to totally re-tile the ship with double the strength and resistance tiles plus put an additional ablative layer under the tiles and fixative.

They recon that will take a month. No FAA mishap investigation, just fix the tiles, test out the ship and booster and stack them ready to get a FAA launch license and Bam off it goes again.

This is the most interesting part of the whole thing. Starship is like Falcon9. Turn up, fill with fuel, go. We became so used to the Shuttle and other rockets having to be rolled back to the assembly building for this or that to be fixed that the press even stopped reporting it a lot of the time. The SpaceX rockets turn up, fuel up, GO!

[Workingman]

Because Mars orbits the Sun slower than Earth there is a very short window of optimal launch dates as the two approach their nearest distance.

"According to NASA, a one-way trip to the Red Planet would take about nine months. If you wanted to make it a round-trip, all in all, it would take about 21 months as you will need to wait about three months on Mars to make sure Earth and Mars are in a suitable location to make the trip back home."

See the article from Space.com

Of course those times could be reduced by using more energy (propellant) but that would be at the expense of payload. Also the short window of opportunity for launch makes the idea of thousands of craft going all at once an impossibility.

When it comes to going underground the 1 million will still need water and air (oxygen) as well as food. I have yet to see a solution for those nor one for the lack of a magnetosphere.. To go outside they will need insulated space suits and breathing apparatus. Then there are problems with gravity, sunlight, cosmic rays and the solar wind. The gravity on Mars is about 40% that of Earth and sunlight is only 50% as strong. UV and cosmic radiation, however, are many times stronger than they are on earth so some form of shielding will be needed for both the personnel and any greenhouses.

Reality is very different from the Ladybird version.

Going to, and staying on Mars is not like a group jumping on a bus at John O'Groats and driving to Land's End to stop in an Airbnb for a few weeks.

[Workingman]

Elon was giving some additional facts last night. 2-4 month transit every two years. Thousands of ships every two years. 10m tons of cargo and 1m people overall.

Hmm. Lets say a Starship's payload of all types is 400 tons then 10m tons is 25,000 launches. If they can up the payload to 500 tons it becomes 20,000 launches.

The Mars launch window (MLW) is approximately two weeks every 26 months. If they can launch one per hour every MLW that's 336 every 26 months, so that will be between 120 to 148 years to get 10m tons to Mars.

However, they do not have the Starships nor the launch sites for the above. It's all a dream.

From SpaceX.


I am not saying that we should not try but that we have to face reality. We have searched a bubble some 300,00 light years (ly) in diameter and have only found 14 "potentially habitable" exoplanets. All but one are over 11ly away with the farthest at 40ly. We do not have the technology to get there never mind inhabit them.

[Suff]

We don't have the technology to get the the further planets but we do have the technology to get to Mars and to live there. It won't be easy but then the people who go there won't expect easy any more than those in the US West expected easy.

As for the ships and the windows for launch and the launch sites?

If you follow it in detail (I wouldn't say obsessively, just as a hobby and regularly), you will realise that SpaceX already bought two ex rigs and ripped them apart to see how they could build sea launch platforms. Their current factory in build is gearing up for 1 ship per day final output. Remember the person owning and driving this activity is CEO and CTO of the company that built the highest performing automotive factories in the world.

Then if you read a lot of the literature SpaceX have already researched using existing played out oil and gas deposits for their methane needs. They may be played out for the high volume petrochemicals market but they are perfect for the volume of methane he needs to launch the ships.

There is a second starship factory in build in Florida too. Now we are talking up to 700 ships a year just from these two factories. As Starlink starts to take over as the world broadband provider more factories will be built.

Boosters are currently being built for 40 launches with re-use. Now the F9 was initially certified for 10, they recently launched one for the 21st time. So expect that to go to hundreds.

Then there are the other goals. The booster launches and lands within 10 minutes. It currently takes just under 50 minutes to fuel a booster. The booster could, conservatively, launch 6 ships a day. 4 towers, 24 a day. 200 launch days, 840 a year. That is with the existing and already approved tower plans (another one in Florida).

Now let's say they build 10 sea launch platforms. Now we are talking another 60 per day on top of the 24 already mentioned. 50 sea launch platforms? 6 launches per day, 200 launch days, 60,000 launches a year.

But let's also understand that the current 1h for a launch and turnaround will get faster. Not so long ago it took around 1h45 to fuel the booster. Also remember what I said about stack, fuel, launch. Over and over again. The reliability factor of these rockets has to be like nothing ever seen before and it already is. They are working on making it better.

So whilst the challenges you talk about are very high, all the activities SpaceX are doing are fully aligned to resolve them. Yes it may take another 30 years to achieve the city on Mars goal, but it is no longer impossible from the moment Starship did a soft landing in the sea on the second time out in space. It may also only take another 15 to 20 years. Remember the person driving this is the richest man in the world and has proved over and over again that he takes his money and makes 10x or 100x more by creating companies which are wildly successful.

I think it is fascinating and I also think that most people are missing one of the largest changes ever in human history. On a par with, or exceeding, moving away from hunter gatherer.

Just my take but it is how I view it. Because I think that most people are so bound up in the caricature created of Musk by the Media and politicians he thwarts that they think it is all a joke.

On this one, believe me, this is neither a joke nor a scam nor a con. This is the real deal and in the next 3 years you're going to see that.

Remember this and keep it in focus. Elon is the leader and the visionary. There are 3m applications annually from the top engineering graduates around the world (not just the US), that apply for a position at SpaceX. They literally have the pick of the brightest and best upcoming engineers this planet has ever seen.

Starship is a reflection of that resource pool.

[Suff]

And something else to think about with space tech.

A laser in space travels approximately 2x the speed of a laser in a fibre optic cable, due to the friction with the inner surface which is not perfectly smooth.

A quick calculation says that the difference between the circumference of the earth on the ground and at 500km is roughtly 1,600km out of 40,000km. Or 800km for half way round the world. Added to this that any packet going half way round the world will go through around 200 switch stages and will travel significantly further than 20,000km due to the sea borne cable routes.

When there are 40,000+ laser equipped Internet satellites up there how long do you think there will be fibre laid on the planet?

Low earth orbit satellite internet has only just begun but it is going to be as ground breaking as DSL and LTE.

Those who have the cheapest kg to LEO solutions are going to clean up in the space internet race. Our world has been fairly static for about a decade now. Slight increments with fibre to the home from STP, but these solutions have been available for decades, just not deployed.

Mars is the goal. Getting there, just like the Apollo program, will spawn solutions and technologies never considered before.

To bring it back on topic, it is why I am so critical of Boeing and Starliner. They're not even trying, all they are doing is bidding for the next tranche of government funds for government space initiatives. Unless the government demands more they will simply not evolve one mm.

[Workingman]

For trips to Mars there are only 14 launch days in a MLW every 26 months, not 200 per year, and probably fewer depending on the weather and alignment of the Earth and Mars orbits. Launching from land or sea does not matter. So let us go with your six ships per day from four towers and add on 10 sea launch platforms (not yet in existence), they would give 196 launches every two years or 168 launches if they are down to 12 days per window. Those capacities do not yet exist. There is another tower currently being built at Starbase with two more planned - Canaveral and Kennedy. Without the sea launches then in full use when completed they would provide 42 launches per MLW.

I then look at other things such as the Starlink HLS (Human Landing System) and a Moonbase. NASA and its partners (SpaceX, ESA, JAXA etc.) are hoping to build a Moonbase by 2031 ish but they have not landed any humans back there as yet. The next humans to land on the Moon are hoped to be there in September 2026 on a mission not dissimilar from Apollo. A Moonbase only five years later looks a tough call. Artemis hardware is already seven years in the making, how long has it been ongoing in the background?

To get people to and from the Moonbase there are a number of phases. Firstly an HLS, a Starship variant, will be launched into orbit atop a booster. Once it is in orbit it will be refuelled by Starship tankers, more launches, with SpaceX claiming 10 launches per HLS. Then, off it goes to the Moon to enter orbit. Meanwhile, using NASA's space launch system (SLS), a crew will be sent in an Orion capsule to rendezvous and dock with the HLS. HLS will then set them down on the Moon and, hopefully, sometime later, take them and Orion back to the SLS and home. The HLS will never come back to earth with a crew it will be more a shuttle between Orion capsules and the Moonbase.

This is going to take years to perfect and is a clear example of just how difficult getting on and off another body in the Solar System will be.

A Marsbase (a city!) in 30 years time; you're having a laugh. And, BTW, I am still waiting for solutions to the air, water and magnetosphere problems.

As for fibre, I am happy with it. It is way faster than I will ever be, mind you so was dial-up.

[Workingman]

Let me try again, one more time, with science.

The Mars Launch Window (MLW) is max 14 days long every 26 months, but it can be less. See the SpaceX image in an earlier post

The orbit of Mars around the Sun is not on the same plane as Earth's; it is inclined, so it is above or below. It is also elliptical where Earth's is relatively circular. These two things constantly alter Mars's nearness and farness to Earth and thus the MLW.

The atmosphere on Mars is 2% that of Earth's. It is mainly carbon dioxide (95%), nitrogen (2.85%), argon (2%) and a few trace gases - oxygen, hydrogen (0.15%). it's surface pressure is only 1%. It is also colder with an average temp of -60 °C. It would kill us instantly.

There is no liquid water on Mars and nobody really knows how much water ice is there or where. A lot of what is thought to be there is tens of metres underground held in rocks and subsoil so it would be a mammoth task to get it out. One million people would need 6.9bn litres of water a year for all needs to survive. If they could recycle 80% of it they would still need 1.4bn litres of new potable / clean water per year; 3.8mn litres every day. We would struggle to provide that on Earth..

Then there's the magnetosphere - the big one: Mars does not have one. A magnetosphere protects a planet from its sun's solar winds, UV, coronal mass ejections, cosmic radiation and other highly charged particles, thus keeping its atmosphere stable and protecting living organisms. Because the core of Mars cooled so quickly it lost its dynamo effect and hence its magnetosphere, and from that its atmosphere. We cannot ever put it back. Without one planets die - Mars is dead. Even with one a planet needs to be in the Goldilock's zone. Mercury has one, but it is too near to the sun, the gas giants also have them but their gravities, if we could land on them, would crush us.

One day, in the far future if we do not do ourselves in first, we might be able to solve the technological, radiological and biological problems of transiting from Earth to Mars and back. We might also be able to assuage the water problem. The others: not a chance.

I do wonder why Mars fans keep avoiding these issues.

[Workingman]

Suff you throw out fantasy figures as if they are real - 200 launch days, 840 a year, 60,000 launches, multiple sea launches...

I am trying to give facts based on science, physics, astronomy, astrobiology, astrobotany etc. My points all stand, yours are no more than "what ifs".

OK, "what if" we had Kirk's Warp Factor Five? We could go to the Delta quadrant and kick the 5h1t out of the Cardassians, is that it? Mind you, the Romulans could come in and cloak / uncloak and screw things up.

Space travel, eh?

Real life is not Star Trek. Well I hope not. I have friend in the Theta region and she is not pleased.

[Suff]

WM there will be 200 launch days each year, or so. Materials and, to a degree, people, will be held in LEO until the 14 days launch window. That means 2 years of punting stuff into orbit then two weeks of sending it on its way. Starships waiting for people will be sitting in orbit and tank from orbital tank farms.

So earth to LEO is not the constraint for that 14 days, it is the LEO to Mars window that has the 14 day constraint.

Artemis is Apollo II. It is doing absolutely nothing new until the crews get to the ground and they extend the stay from a few hours to a few days. The cost is astronomical. SLS is zero new tech and the Artemis lunar transfer module is just an uprated Apollo unit. One launch every two years is the goal they set. It's getting nobody anywhere at an extremely slow pace.

The only real departure from this is Starship HLS. It's absolutely ginormous and is expected to stay at the moon and do multiple landings, ascents. Every other contender, so far as I'm aware, intends to leave the landing part of the lunar lander on the surface and only blast back off again with the upper section.

Information is pretty thin on the ground but from comments made Starship will have fuel stations in Earth orbit and in Lunar orbit. Which means that not only can HLS go from Lunar orbit to the surface and back again multiple times, Starships can also transit from Earth to Lunar orbits on low energy tracks using minimal fuel. Meaning they can do just about everything the SLS and the Artemis module can do but do it multiple times.

Already US senators are beginning to ask why they are spending hundreds of billions on SLS for a launch once every two years when Starship is going to be lifting more dozens then hundreds of times a year.

The question has no good answer and SLS begins to look like a large white thing with a trunk and tusks.

Fibre? Love it. When you realise that your virtual hard drive is out of date and the up to date one is 700 miles away, pulling the drive at 50mBytes per second instead of mbits per second is a real boon...