What is going on in Russia?

[Workingman]

Reports are that the Wagner group has taken over military sites in Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh.

It is not a military coup or an insurgency, you see, it is described as a "march for justice".

There are a lot of "what ifs" about all this, not least about the (possible) fall of Putin.

There are some very dangerous people in Russia, much, much worse that Putin if he does "disappear". Could it be time for the West to plant the brain-worm that he needs to get out of Ukraine to sort things out in Russia before it all gets out of control?

If he can be convinced, or sees, that Russian troops are standing aside or even defecting to Wagner he might have no choice.

He might talk.

[Suff]

There is a Twitter space going on about this.

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1vAGRAwNvzXKl?s=20

This is from a thread about this where they are seeing military positions setting up around Moscow.

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 1739881473

They are plugged into what is going on in the ministries right now. Apparently the Moscow Police have been called in en-masse in the last few hours. There is a convoy heading that way. The interesting point is that Moscow has been stripped to fight in Ukraine. Wagner are currently running up the M4 motorway and about 6 hours from Moscow. Air assets have not targeted them at this time. Apparently Wagner only have short range air defence.

Very interesting developments.

Taking over the military command centre causes chaos in the comms for the rest of Russia as they will have to change encryption everywhere.

Chechen forces have been mobilised to attack Wagner at Rostov.

Outside of all of this, this has to offer a HUGE opportunity for Ukraine to break through and mop up whilst the forces aligned against them are in disarray.

You can see the changes on this livemap.

https://liveuamap.com/

This is a hugely fluid situation that is developing very quickly.

The main question here is whether the Russian military see this push as a way to get out of Ukraine. Because if even a very small amount of the Russian military turn and support Wagner then civil war is entirely possible. In that case Ukraine will push Russia out very rapidly indeed.

There are conflicting reports coming from the front about how Russia is holding. Supporters of Wagner say the front has collapsed. Non supporters say that it is holding.

This situation is extremely dangerous given that the convoy has not been destroyed. Russia has the air ability to obliterate it but has not done so. If Russia, a Nuclear state, descends into civil war, things will go south Very quickly.

I'm listening to the Spaces link above. HUGE amount of information coming in every minute. For instance Chechen forces are entering Rostov Now as I post this. On this spaces are people who have family in Moscow who are sending Telegram messages out. So we are getting a mass of live info.

[TheOstrich]

There are reports that Putin has fled Moscow; Flightradar24 tracked a presidential jet exiting Moscow and flying north before its tracking devices were switched off.
There are also reports of other private jets departing from Moscow's airports.

There's also these babies currently in the air and heading towards Kazakstan / Turkey, possibly ....
https://www.flightradar24.com/SUM9123/30dad108
https://www.flightradar24.com/SUM9107/30dae29e
(links will only work until they land)

[Suff]

These are WAY out of date.

I'm listening to commentary by a range of people from Russians to Ukranians and US people who know about this.

Convoy going north is 400 vehicles. This is beyond the capability of Wagner to do alone.
Wagner are reported as being in Moscow Oblast and only 2 hours from Moscow centre.
Wagner troops are targeting a base with Nuclear weapons

Chechen troops are approaching Wagner in Rostov. A statement that if this becomes violence then Russia has officially engaged in civil war.

Tried to post this larger and it failed with a SQL error. so I cut it short.

[Suff]

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
BREAKING: Reports of Wagner forces have ENTERED MOSCOW OBLAST, being 2 hours away from Moscow City.

Notes: Below video is UNVERIFIED, and we could not CONFIRM Wagner is in Moscow Oblast, however based on all the reports we're getting, I am confident tweeting this and stating that this is likely true. We are trying to verify this in the current space.

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/ ... 7697515520

The video on this post shows a road blockOne of the people on the call has contacts directly with Wagner members who are currently in Moscow. Not on the way to Moscow but in Moscow. This makes sense. If you are a Military General and want to run a campaign into your own capital city, then you would plan ahead and use your troops who are your own citizens.

This is an incredibly fast moving situation and the MSM is nowhere near.ed by trucks, south of Moscow, which have been smashed out of the way. Looking to the other carriageway it is still blocked by trucks full of what looks like 25 tons of aggregate.

[Suff]

It didn't like one icon.

[Suff]

So the video is not of Moscow. But reports continue about troops close to Moscow.

[cromwell]

There has been bad feeling and fighting between the Wagner mercenaries and the regular Russian army before now. Seems like the head of the Wagner group (Prizhogkin?) has turned on his boss Putin.
I just hope we don't get someone even worse than Putin, and that can't be ruled out.

[Workingman]

Lots of opinion, conjecture and speculation, but not much real news - Twitter or otherwise.

What is surprising - two things - and these do appear to be factual.

1. From the build up to the war, and since, Russia is known to have battalion strength reserves, airfields and major supply depots east of the Ukraine border and straddling the M4, yet Wagner seems to have been able to just drive past them with only minor resistance. Strange!

2. Chechen forces are reportedly being sent to Rostov to take on Wagner, yet that city is (was) heavily fortified and is the major hub for Russian forces being sent to the front, comms, intel and supplies. So why are Chechen forces needed?

Nothing adds up.

If the hot dog seller, Putin's chef. or one of the others of the inner circle do topple Putin then things could get very dirty indeed.

[Suff]

When Wagner took one of the Russian military hubs they took over control of a building which has all of the current codes and encryption keys for communications in the entire Russian military. Essentially they have crippled secure comms.

It will take more than 24 hours for the Russian military to recover from that. Much quicker to take back the HQ. The closest troops to do that were Chechen troops.

It is useful to remember that the Russian army is still mainly a conscript Army. So unless they have frontline battle experience, they are not very effective. Facing frontline battle troops with 1st line Russian weaponry is not a pleasant concept and can only have one or two results. Firstly they die and Wagner remains. Secondly they bury them in bodies and eventually win. But maybe 24 hours or more later which is simply too late for this situation.

Unlike most coups or wars in the past, this one is happening in the 3rd decade of the 21st century. Everyone has a mobile, Everyone has internet connectivity and the internet is still up. So those with large networks of contacts, Twitter, ticktock, telegram, farcebook, etc, are far better informed then the MSM.

Right now there are local citizen reports that Wagner have crossed the last obstacle, river, between them and Moscow.

This is a race and, so far, Wagner is winning and Putin has bugged out. Reports are surfacing that elements of the Military are staying "hands off" and letting this play out. Putin may significantly regret the "balcony incidents" of so many senior military.