UK breaks the next taboo on Ukraine arms

[Suff]

The UK, On Thursday, announced that it had sent air to ground missiles to Ukraine with a range of 250km. So far everyone has stood with the US stance that they could only send 30km range weapons because Ukraine might start hitting targets in Russia. Whilst Russia is bombarding Ukraine with missiles that have a 2,000km range.

I expect that just like the Challenger 2 announcement, which opened the flood gates to hundreds of NATO 1st line tanks being sent to Ukraine, that this will open a window for longer range missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

It is about time that the Russians felt the full force of distance weapons instead of being able to call in barrages, which the Ukrainians cannot touch, whilst the Ukrainians were unable to respond in kind.

With long range air to ground and 1st line NATO tanks, Ukraine has a very good chance to roll Russian forces right back to their border this summer.

We can hope, otherwise hundreds of thousands more will die.

[Kaz]

I agree.

[Workingman]

Don't get too excited.

The Storm Shadow missiles are older stock and the only Ukraine aircraft capable of delivering them, atm, are Soviet era Su24s and Su25s. In themselves and with their numbers they are not really a game changer. NATO sending newer and more missiles will come up against the same problem. If the Ukraine could get some Tornadoes and Mirage IIIs things might change. However, training their pilots and navs will take quite some time. The same problems arise with older F14s and F18s.

What the missiles do is allow Ukraine to fire from stand-off positions in their own secure(r) airspace, but the targets would have to be very selectively chosen and of strategic importance such as Sevastopol and other naval ports and also the Kirch bridge.

The Russians must surely know this and will beef up their defences.

[Suff]

True but it breaks another line the US and Germany carefully set so they could recover their trade with Russia once this was all over.

Exactly as the Challengers broke the main battle tank taboo, which then opened up over 100 tank commitments from around the world, I would expect this to unlock both planes and other missiles for Ukraine. Not much point in denying Ukraine the 300km missiles for HIMARS if the UK are going to give them 250km air launched missiles.

[Suff]

Getting general system errors with longer messages. I can't submit the rest of the post.

[Workingman]

Ukraine has had 300km+ Himars for over a year and it was reported last August that it could get the extended range version - 500km.

And as I said earlier, it is not simply a case of supplying aircraft, even if they could be got hold of. Training up the aircrews and gound crews on all the new kit and systems will take time - quite some time. Then comes the problem of integrating all this "new" kit into the existing Ukraine air force.

As of March this year only two pilots are being assessed on flying F14 to F18 aircraft and then only on simulators. They are not being trained - as yet.

[Suff]

Ukraine had the HIMARS launchers but were denied the 300km rockets. They are still denied the 300km rockets. If they were not, they would not need these missiles.

[Workingman]

OK, if you say so, but if you ask a search engine "Does Ukraine have 300km HIMARS missiles" the answers are a bit different; including from Joe Biden.

There is, of course. penty of plausible deniability.

Doesn't alter what I say about long range air-to-ground missiles and the means of delivery.

[Suff]

Doesn't alter what I say about long range air-to-ground missiles and the means of delivery.

No that's true.

December 2022

The Pentagon secretly modified advanced rocket systems it sent to Ukraine to make the weapons unable to fire into Russia and escalate the war.

Since June, the U.S. has supplied Kyiv with 20 of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), but the weapons are uniquely modified so they can’t fire long-range missiles, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials.

The missiles are called ATMS and I can't find any reference to ATMS being sent to Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal has the same article.

I can find no report anywhere that ATMS has been s hipped to Ukraine. In fact if what is said in these articles is true, the US removed components required to fire ATMS.

This is why I'm saying that Storm Shadow breaks another taboo. Essentially it opens the window for all the nations supporting Ukraine to send longer range missiles. Just like Challenger 2 tipped the tank balance. It is not so much about whether the UK sends them missiles which they only have a few planes to fire them. It is about other nations sending planes to fire them and additional missiles to fire on them.

Watch this space.

[Workingman]

Watch this space.

I have been.

The latest is that the US will allow current owners of F16s to export them to Ukraine. That lets them off the hook, a bit. However, the training time could be up to 18 months.

The US has hundreds of older F16s in "The Boneyard" near Tucson, but releasing them would be a red flag to Russia. They would be coming directly from the US making escalation almost inevitable.

Ex RAF Air Vice-Marshal, Sean Bell, says so.

Having missiles is one thing, delivering them is another.