Ukraine

[Workingman]

I see countries are lining up to limit landing rights to Russian airlines, though I do not see any overflight restrictions, as yet. The French have apprehended a Russian cargo ship in the Channel.

As well as national sanctions against Russia I also notice that some visas are being cancelled and asset freezes are being put in place on some (powerful) Russian individuals. The hope seems to be that they will put pressure on Putin so that they can keep their freedom to roam.

I just hope that Putin does not suffer from "Cornered Rat Syndrome" because judging from the video of him the other day he looks to like playing with 'buttons'.

[Kaz]

I think he is ill, both mentally and physically, and looking to make his mark on history while he still can.

Frank, that worries me too.

[Suff]

I guess it comes down to what happens when someone who cannot afford to lose is facing losing.

In decades past with the USSR it was a politburo with many people. Now, similar to the US, the ability to go one over the top seems to reside with a very few people and all of them personally invested in this invasion.

[Workingman]

There is a scenario where it might come down to how many ear worms the West can plant into those of Russia's military commanders to make them wonder....

"Look how many troops you are losing", "Look at the damage to the Russian economy", "Look how your families and friends are suffering because of the shortages", "Look at Russia's standing in the world", "Your navy cannot get out of the Black Sea". "Your people are behind an iron curtain of Putin's making and can't get out".

"Do you want this forever?"

[TheOstrich]

I'm pleased to see that there has now been some movement on the SWIFT-based sanctions and although the proposals aren't fully comprehensive, it's a start.
It's also pleasing to note that Germany is prepared to supply arms to the Ukraine and Victor Orban of Hungary has pledged to work with the EU to get any anti-Putin measures in place.
And more and more EU countries are moving to banning Russian aircraft from their territory.

What I hope is that this has been a wake-up call for the EU as well as the rest of the Western world. Everyone needs to put petty politics aside now, including the EU / UK divorce spat.
Russia's posturing and Ukrainian invasion is one huge dose of reality, and we need to get real.

The RoI are looking at expelling their Russian ambassador. All European counties now need to follow suit.

[Suff]

It occurs to me that Germany lacks the experience to deal with this situation.

Germany appears to be counting the cost of acting. Almost everybody else is counting the cost of not acting.

Whilst Germany will be very aware of the risk and cost that Putin is taking, they have zero experience with the other cost.

[Suff]

And now Putin has waggled the Nuclear stick whilst also attempting to sue for "peace" with a partitioned Ukraine.

At the same time the EU is sending warplanes to Ukraine and other military hardware. If Russia is not very careful they may find Ukraine comes out of this intact, stronger, with the Crimea AND a member of NATO.

Belarus has changed their constitution to no longer become a Nuclear free zone. Allowing Russia to forward position nukes there.

BP Is dumping their 20% Rosneft holding and the government is fast tracking financial legislation which has a one time use on Oligarchs and then will be forever after used against our own people and businesses with another core of our rights to privacy removed.

I'm sure that the Generals sold Putin that they could get in, take Kyiv, control the country and then make the play they wanted. The thing is I'm sure they thought that using their air, knocking out the Ukranian air capabilities then sending in fast moving light and heavy armour would do the job.

The generals should have updated Putin when the UK sent the man portable anti armour rockets. In order to cross hostile territory with man portable anti armour which can take out a main battle tank (MBT), you need infantry on the ground. The thing is modern tanks can move forward at 30mph over most terrain. That means infantry are in their armour also doing 30mph. Leaving all the ground around them open to single troops able to take out mbt or personnel carriers with a single strike.

Air doesn't help here. To take ground in this way you need boots on the ground and that means days or weeks to advance to the cities.

Of course if you have your own air operative, then you can punish the advancing armour of the enemy.

Then there is the logistics. When we fought Desert Storm they advanced at 30mph, tanks and infantry. That meant that the supply squadrons had to advance at 30mph to the resupply dumps, retire as fast as they could and catch up to the last resupply location, plus up to 300 more miles. This journey just keeps getting bigger. In Desert Storm the resupply ran 24x7 from the very first day and they struggled to keep up. Even with the engineers growing a pipeline for fuels at about 50 miles a day and forward supply bases moving daily.

Meanwhile the Ukranian supply line gets shorter and is becoming larger as the EU and NATO countries start pouring weapons and supplies into Ukraine.

This kind of action is textbook NATO, USSR incursion scenario. You can bet that the NATO Generals are advising the Ukrainian high command right now.

[Suff]

Russia pulls out of European spaceport, abandoning a planned launch

Russia has decided to suspend cooperation with European launch officials and says it will withdraw its personnel from Europe's main spaceport.

The chief of Russia's main space corporation, Dmitry Rogozin, announced the decision on Twitter Saturday morning, saying his country was responding to sanctions placed on Russia by the European Union. Europe, the United States, and other nations around the world issued significant sanctions on Russia this week after the country's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Approximately two dozen Russian technicians and engineers work at Russian facilities in French Guiana. This spaceport, called the Guiana Space Center, is where Europe launches its fleet of orbital rockets, including a "Europeanized" version of the Russian Soyuz vehicle for medium-lift missions. The Russians had been working to prepare a Soyuz rocket to launch two Galileo satellites for the European Union on April 6.

The Russian decision does put the European Union in something of a bind, however. Europe's small Vega rockets are not powerful enough to lift the Galileo and Copernicus satellites to their orbits. And the continent's heavy-lift vehicle, Ariane 5, is being retired in favor of the more efficient and cost-effective Ariane 6 rocket. However, all of the remaining Ariane 5 launches are spoken for, and the Ariane 6 rocket probably will not become operational until at least 2023.

So it is not clear what steps Europe might take in the interim, should it need to rapidly launch a Galileo or Copernicus satellite. The only Western company with the spare capacity for such a mission is probably the United States-based SpaceX, but Europe seems unlikely to support a competitor to its institutional launch industry.

Also the US ULA (united launch alliance), launches on Russian rocket engines. The Blue Origin Vulcan (hydrogen) rocket engine being developed for them is late, late, late and BO is looking more like Blue Orifice right now in terms of delivery.

Lots of headless chickens right now, the only company able and probably willing, to close the gap is SpaceX but it looks like nobody wants to funnel any more money into SpaceX as it will just mean they take over even faster.

This invasion may cost Russia a lot more than just money or prowess. It may lose it's space industry or wind up in bed with China as the supplicant.

[meriad]

I just hope that Putin does not suffer from "Cornered Rat Syndrome" because judging from the video of him the other day he looks to like playing with 'buttons'.

Haven't read all the posts in this thread, but dare I say that I'm so very glad the US no longer has 'button push happy' Trump at the helm, because between him and Putin I'd hate to think what would happen

[Suff]

Putin continues to put himself in a corner. Now NASA and other nations are looking into the feasibility of separating the Russian section of the ISS. This is due to the Russians blocking all Russian-International space cooperation and withdrawing engineers from the ESA launch area. This blocks ESA launches and OneWeb launches. All revenue generating for the Russian space services.

I'm wondering how many more own goals Putin will score before he realises just how far down the hole he is and how small that little segment of light is. My hope is he stops digging and starts climbing because betting it all on one big win in Ukraine is not looking like a winner right now.

Annexing Crimea was peanuts compared to where he is now.