Ukraine

[Workingman]

Quite!. And Putin is no mug. Sanctions and possible recession will have been factored in, as was the fact that NATO could do sod all in the military sense.

The problem is NOW; getting away from Russian, or any, gas is way in the future and he knows it.

[Workingman]

I am wondering what worms were whispered into the ears of the (Western) spivs to force the gas price up some six months ago? There was no shortage as we were using a lot les due to the pandemic, and winter coming on can be no excuse as it tends to happen at this time of year.

Was it a deliberate ploy to give Vlad a 'hedge' against the sanctions / inflation / recession his invasion would provoke? "Get your gas now, boys, there could be trouble ahead." He has been raking it in big time, hasn't he?

[Suff]

Was it a deliberate ploy to give Vlad a 'hedge' against the sanctions / inflation / recession his invasion would provoke? "Get your gas now, boys, there could be trouble ahead." He has been raking it in big time, hasn't he?

Quite possibly. As you say he's no mug. You didn't get to be a Colonel in the KGB if you were a total idiot.

[Suff]

Germany has committed to shutting down all of it's nuclear reactors and to getting rid of all it's coal fired power stations by 2030.

I know you don't follow it Crommers but Germany just committed to their 2050 net zero and the major energy plank from now till at least 2040 is Gas. In fact they leaned on the EU to change their designation of gas from CO2 FF to Green energy depending on whether it was being used as a primary fuel or to phase out coal.

The EU is resisting but I guess they'll cave. France wants Nuclear designated as renewable (it is not it is very low CO2 over the entire cycle but Zero at the point of generation) and are supporting Germany in their own goals to "redefine" green and renewable in the EU.

It is no accident that shortly after Germany come out with a 2050 net Zero plan that relies almost totally on Russian gas, that Russia invades Ukraine.

Even better for Russia, the EU have been working night and day to get EU bonds and transactions out of London and into the EU. Russia has also been working night and day to get their funding moved to these EU sites. Now he is insulated, to some extent, from UK sanctions. He can't buffer it all as the UK is still the single largest financial centre in the world, but he has managed to get enough out.

Parallels to Opium come to mind.

[Suff]

I'm guessing that Lukashenko is about to find out just how painful it will be to be Vlad's bestie when he wants to invade a sovereign nation via Belarus.

My suspicion is that the rest of the world will have little sympathy with his position and make him and Belarus, culpable of the same crime.

Rapidly unfolding events
Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary A. DiCarlo told the Council that earlier in the day, the “so-called authorities of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics” had requested military assistance from Russia.

From the UN News.

Now where have we heard that one before? 1970's, Afghanistan....

[Workingman]

I said the other day that Putin would move to control districts from Kherson, adjacent to Crimea, along the coast of the Sea of Azov to the Donbas. Latest pictures show that that pincer movement is under way. If it is what was wanted all along there might be a chance of and end game of sorts.

[Suff]

You did. Your reading was correct.

However attacking the capitol and launching a land campaign at that capitol sends and entirely different message.

Meanwhile, going back a few weeks..

British transport aircraft are now in their third day of delivering “thousands” of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the face of a massive build-up of Russian troops.

“The Bofors NLAW (Next Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) is the first ever single soldier missile system that rapidly knocks out any Main Battle Tank in just one shot by striking it from above.”

There might be quite a few dead hulls in the next few days. Russia might just get a surprise, you only need dedicated troops willing to take the risk.

[Workingman]

Here's my thinking.

The shaded area is what Putin really wants.



Attacking Kyiv is a forcing manoeuvre (temporary) for control purposes. He already has a 250 mile NATO border with Estonia and Latvia, he does not want another 800 mile one in western Ukraine - it is against all stated aims. That is why he wants the buffer zone as per the map. The explosions are mainly at military airfields and airports to prevent resupply by air - he already has sea routes covered.

[Suff]

Serious resupply has to come by road or rail really. One tank squadron can fire a planeload of ordnance in a few minutes.

It is a fairly textbook attack. The question is, "who will he be facing in the end?".

The thing is the only people who really want any kind of war are Putin and Ukraine. One to gain and one to defend. The rest will develop a very sore crotch soon.

[Workingman]

Serious supply, yes, but for small arms, ammo, mortar shells, bazookas and the Bofors you talk about, immediate supply is by air.

Then there is air superiority - take the skies and you take the land. It was no surprise that in W. Germany only the fighter / interceptor airfields were near the front. The bomber and ground attack fields were in the rear.

We always knew that we were the primary targets in any initial attack and that is why we spent so much time, effort and manpower in protecting our airfields. We could do immense damage to their attacking forces so we had to be taken out - they knew it and so did we.