Workingman wrote:
We have been sucked in to a bun fight with a sovereign nation, France, backed by 26 other members of the club, and could trash a comprehensive FTA covering 99;88% of our GDP with the world's largest trading bloc, and our near neighbours, because of it.
Great work - not.
UK GDP 2019. £2,210 billion.
UK Export trade to the EU 2019. £300 billion.
I don't count imports, the EU is only ONE part of the world and one of the most expensive parts of the world too. If you must, I'll allow 50% of EU imports as "potentially", unchangeable.
UK imports from the EU. £372 billion. Half is £186 billion.
£486 billion is 23% of the UK economy. Not to be ignored and a massive impact if we lost it.
Now, just to keep this real, let us say we face an average of 20% of tariffs on the £300 billion we export. Let us also say this reduces our exports by 20% to the EU due to cost.
20% of the 300 billion is £60 billion.
Again, a fairly hefty cost. Every year. But hardly country or soul crushing. In fact sucking in imports from the rest of the world could reduce our import bill dramatically, rebalancing the import export balance. In the long term the deficit could reduce dramatically, the economy could expand hugely and that £60bn could, very easily, become a foot note on our sad history with the EU.
So whilst my vision could be deemed blue sky and naive, 99.88% of GDP is, to be kind about it, misguided and to be blunt is a figure designed to drive people into a course of action through blind fear.
As for the EU being the largest trading bloc in the world? Only by the number of nations in it. By actual trade, which is how you should measure it, it is third to the US which is second to NAFTA. When the UK is finally gone, within a decade, it will become 4th to China.
To be honest I'm sick and tired of the whole assertion that the EU is the ONLY possibility the UK could trade with, the LARGEST trading bloc in the world and a bunch of "very nice people", in terms of negotiating a trade deal.
If you want to trace the current outbreak of salmonella in chicken, I'm sure you will find it comes form Broilers from Brazil, who don't dilute chlorine wash their chickens. It certainly isn't coming from the US, we don't let them in. This is Within the EU. When we leave our trade will naturally move away from the EU. Even with a FTA. Because the EU is expensive and the only reason we have not done so until now is because EU trade barriers have blocked that trade and made it too expensive.
So that 23% of our economy will drop, dramatically, over the next 10 years FTA or not. In the end, the UK, which is a highly competitive country, denied the open and free access to a trading enclave, will go out and trade with the rest of the world.
As for fish and "sold in good faith"? We were robbed blind by nations who have fished their own stocks to destruction and fully intend to do the same to the UK. Just go check on the French lambasting their government because there is no sole left in French waters. Not only have they totally fished out their own stocks, they want ours too.
Anyway. Let's see what happens tomorrow. The French and Spanish are lathering themselves into a fury. We are pressuring the EU to come to the summit, tomorrow, with a statement that a framework deal is agreed or that there is an alignment that allows us to progress. That framework and that alignment will not concede on fishing and will only have slight concessions on alignment with standards. About the same alignment that Canada would have with CETA.
Germany and Spain desperately need the level playing field, France, Spain, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and sundry others desperately need fishing to remain the same.
But don't expect to read that in the BBC. They want you to fear 99.88% destruction of our economy and to understand that the fisheries deal that gave away 90% of our fish stocks, in perpetuity, was a really good deal from some "wonderful chaps"!
