My mail to one of the joint chairmen, Grant Shapps
Dear Sir,
I'm sure you receive a lot of letters of this kind after such a dismal result during a mid term by election. Whilst I fully understand the party's position, which is to treat it as a protest vote and move on to bigger and more important things; I personally feel that this is a mistake.
Let me try and organise my thoughts on this so that I can structure the message with the impact I intend.
1. Who am I and why do I think you should listen to me
2. The Tories, the Country and the EU
3. Listening and learning
4. Would we really be any worse off?
1. Who am I? Well nobody really I'm just the faceless person who talks in the background and never stands out. Then again, I'm everyone I am the person you must reach in order to get your message across.
Then again I'm also very different from most people. I have worked as an independent contractor 20 years and also I've worked in Europe for 15 of those years. I have a clear understanding of the people of the EU and what makes them tick. Witness a conversation with a Dutch Colleague in Amsterdam. "Tony Blair is only saying this and doing this because he wants to be the first president of the Council of Ministers". "Yes we know that but he's not going to get it even with the backing of Sarkozy and Merkel because he's an idiot and we hate him".
As a lifelong voter for conservative principles, I follow most of the tenets of the Tory conservatism; however you lost my vote for a decade when you lost the plot with Scotland. My vote went to the SNP because it was the only option I would tolerate and I don't spoil ballot papers, where's the logic in that?
During the last general election, I was barred from voting as I had lost my UK home during the 2008 debacle and did not want to register for an ex pat vote. It is fortunate that I would never vote Labour anyway as I would not have forgiven them for that mess. However I became a member of the Conservative party to push funds into the party. It was my contention that the country could be seriously damaged with another Labour government and even more damaged with a Lab Lib pact. That viewpoint has not changed.
Now I'm back in the UK, working and will, eventually, have an address and a vote. So you are reading a potential voters letter.
2. The Tories, the country and the EU. So the Tory party is much more EU sceptic, the Country is flooded with cheap EU labour, many of whom are treating Britain with the contempt that her own citizens do not. Moreover they are getting away with it. The UK also has another specific issue which is Moslem led terrorism. This terrorism is fairly unknown in the remainder of the EU, so you would expect that decisions made in Europe would be completely insane in Britain. Something the UK is slowly waking up to, despite the lethargy, the lack of willingness to vote, the malaise that abundant support and taxes have created. Even through that fog of comfort and disinformation, the whole situation of rampantly inappropriate legislation from the centre of the EU is filtering down to the conscience of the people as a whole.
England, Britain and Scotland, have had an almost constant administration for the last 900 years. OK it has only been a consolidated administration for some 300 years; however this is significantly more than most of the remainder of the EU. So we must expect that the functioning of that administration will be much more focused, more controlled and more controlling than the remainder of the EU. So consider that the lawmakers understand their own institutions but do not understand the UK institutions. Laws made to force Italy to conform are suffocating to the UK.
As this carries on, the people become more and more aware of what the EU is. When they finally work out that it is working communism, expect the backlash to be severe. We're not there yet, but 7 year budgets, unelected officials, uncontrolled expenses, accounts the auditors refuse to certify, it all adds up. This momentum is not going to go away and it will only build.
David seems to feel that he has to be constructive in the EU. What he appears to fail to understand is that he must be destructive to get his goals. Witness the speed of reaction when he vetoed legislation. Mutual condemnation. However when George stated that it made no sense for the UK to continue bailing out the PIIGS, to support French Banks, the tone changed immediately to "What do you want". Now I know the press ignored this and most people missed it completely; however as he goes on his journey of repatriating powers to the UK, to the total intransigence of the EU institutions, this will become clearer and clearer to the people. As it becomes clearer, the vote will increase for an exit, not decrease.
So let's analyse what David said in his speech re the EU.
- I know you are unhappy about his but I need time to find a solution which will work for us
- Even if you don't want the solution I find, if I am happy with it I will stand in opposition to your wishes
- I'm not willing to do anything in this electoral term
Now come on, let's be honest here. If he does anything in this electoral term, the Lib Dems will break the coalition. David does not want to be a leader who had a failed coalition going back to the polls. Great for him, but that is what a LEADER does when it's not working. If he can't lead he should step down and let someone who can take over. It is not that bad right now but he should understand that this is the message from Eastleigh.
3. Listening and learning. Voters did not vote in a coalition. I know the press were blathering on about it being a "good" thing for the country, but, in reality, it is not. Those Tory voters who voted in David Cameron did not do so to have the policies on the EU shaped by the junior partner. They voted for a strong Conservative leader to make the changes in the relationship to the EU and also to lead the country out of the wilderland of perpetual benefits and perpetual debt.
This has not happened. The voters of Eastleigh are sending a message. The root of our issues lie in our relationship with the EU. If you won't fix that we will vote for someone who will. Is anyone listening? It doesn't sound like it. Where are the "we understand the message and will comply with it". Where is the move to bring forward the referendum on the EU to before the next election? This is what people are voting for.
To be honest, the message has already been sent. Had the Tories garnered the votes that went to UKIP at the last election, they would not be in coalition today.
The message has not been heard. Even more votes are going to the UKIP. There is no benefit in keeping a coalition going which will make a Tory defeat at the next election certain. In that scenario only Labour and the Lib Dems can win. It is still possible for Cameron to force Clegg's hand and state his willingness to operate a minority government. THAT is the leadership the people are looking for, that is what people want Cameron and the Tories to learn. It worked for Alex Salmond and he was rewarded by a majority in a very difficult voting environment.
4. Would we really be any worse off? People are asking themselves if they really need to vote Tory. If David will not tackle the EU, if George will not fight the deficit, then why do we need the Tories at all? Will it really be that much worse off if we ditch them? I know this is complete rubbish, but the general population does not. The press made sooooo much about our debt exceeding £1tn. They made nothing of the fact that if Brown had had his way we would have racked up £200bn or more in each of the two years, would have exceeded £1tn earlier and been well on our way to the second £1tn by the end of that parliament.
Why is this not being made clear? Why is there no clear statement on how well the UK is doing in relation to the rest of the EU. I am working in the UK again because work in the EU is vanishing faster than snow on a summer pavement. People really believe that the Eurozone is doing better than the UK because their currency hasn't fallen. They cannot be expected to understand how much investors stand to lose if the Euro falls 30%, but they can be told the real story of the economic decline, the disaster looming over the countries, the rapidly escalating French debt under Hollande.... etc. The number of ways to present this are legion, but almost nothing is being done to present the real picture. Bankers bonuses? Rubbish, how about an economy recovering from a 1929 style death blow and performing well. It will take time to absorb the shock of the mess made by Brown and Blair, but, in the interim, things are stable. It is more than we could have reasonably expected, but it has to be SAID. No matter how much the Lib Dems don't want it.
If it were not for other commitments outside of the UK, I would have been at the Eastleigh campaign offices of the UKIP, seeing what I could do to help.
If the Conservatives are listening at all, they should understand that they have driven me to this. Only they can undo it.
Yours Sincerely,
[Suff]
The reply
Dear [Suff].
I am writing on behalf of the Party Chairman, The Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP, who has asked me to thank you for your recent email.
It is good of you to get in touch and make us aware of your thoughts following the Prime Minister’s speech on Europe. Your feedback is appreciated and I will be sure to pass your comments on to the Chairmen and the Foreign Affairs team in the Conservative Research Department.
In the current climate of a global race and eurozone crisis, the European Union is changing and this raises questions about the future of Britain’s relationship with it.
As a Party we are clear that we want Britain to stay in the EU, we helped to pioneer the Single Market and that free trade is paying off with 50% of our business being with the EU. But we need to make sure we continue to play a leading role so that we can see out the economic crisis that is having such an effect on hard working Britons and make sure we’re getting the best deal for Britain. It is for this reason that we are going to fight for a new relationship with Europe that will be more competitive, more flexible and will put the interest of British businesses, workers and their families first.
Ultimately, we want the British public to decide if that deal is enough for Britain and that is why we are putting our new deal to a vote so that the people can decide in an in-out referendum. But voting today between the status quo and leaving would be a false choice – we need to have a chance to put our relationship with Europe right and do this whilst the European Union is in its current changing state.
I do hope that you will feel reassured that the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party are taking the correct responsible action to get the best deal possible and stand up for hard working Britons.
Thank you, once again, for taking the time and trouble to get in touch.
Yours sincerely,
Oliver
Oliver Wells
Office of the Party Chairmen
Conservative Campaign Headquarters
My response
Thank you very much for your reply to my letter.
Actually I am not reassured that either the Prime Minister or the Conservative Party are taking the right course of action. In fact my take is that you didn’t listen to a word I said and replied with platitudes and a pat on the head.
If that is how you feel then you will be VERY surprised when, not if, you lose the next election.
The time to negotiate with the EU is NOW. It is whilst they are in turmoil, it is whilst they are vulnerable. When they have sorted their mess out they will make NO change. None at all. For the UK; because they will have had to horse trade so much to achieve what they have.
The time to negotiate with the EU is NOW, before the referendum in THIS parliament, with a strong bargaining position of a potential UK exit if they don’t comply.
Never, Never NEVER, will the nations of the EU negotiate with the UK when they have a strong hand.
If you don’t understand that then you are doomed to fail. Failure of this conservative government will lead to consequences that the UK will not be able to resolve short of revolution. That will be the place of David Cameron in the history books.
Should David start Now and move to a referendum before the next election, he stands a very good chance of winning. Anything and I do mean ANYTHING, else will be a guarantee of failure. Distrust of the EU is at a high. Notably this is at a time when the press are telling the greatest and most complete truth about the EU. The British people do not want “soft communism” as a government and they never will. When they realise that is what is on offer, they will vote with Extreme feet.
The Tory Party already recognises that they did not win the last election due to UKIP fracturing their vote. How much worse will it be when middle of the road people fracture the Tory vote even more?
It’s time to stop Telling People and start Listening to people.
People do not want the EU as it stands today or the relationship with the EU that the UK currently has. That will not “heal” in the near future. In fact the divide is likely to become significantly wider with time.
David Cameron may not wish to leave the EU, however he is not the King, he is the representative of the people. It’s time to represent them and that means doing their will and leading change.
I very much doubt that anything I say will dent the momentum being built or make the cabinet and the party realise they must U turn now before they are overwhelmed. However I felt I had to try.
I don’t wish the Tories well in this endeavour as I believe they are completely wrong. However I do wish them time to reflect on things and come up with the right answer.
Regards,
[Suff]
The FT Today (free access).
Whilst I don't believe I have had an overly large representation from my conversation, I do believe that everyone like me who writes to them creates an impact which can be heard.
