A calm voice of sanity

[Suff]

In the Brexit asylum.

[Workingman]

For every type of Moody's report there is an opposite opinion. These things are out there from political, semi-official, commercial and 'Think Tanks' organisations all jockeying for position.

Whichever side they are from they have one thing in common and that is they contain no facts. We will not get facts about the type of Brexit that will be delivered until A50 is triggered and the negotiations are completed. Then, one day, we will wake up to fine the the UK is out of the EU and the EU is without the UK, only then will we know any facts about what Brexit has actually become.

[Suff]

Not so much facts as options. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY so far has mentioned the fact that the EU already has mechanisms in place to allow external countries to do financial transaction trades in the EU.

Everyone is hammering on about how we HAVE to do one thing or the other. Nobody is actually standing back and saying "how does this work for the rest of the world because the EU is certainly NOT the whole of the world".

Moody's just did this.

[Workingman]

Well the head of Germany's Central Bank thinks differently and I suspect that he is in a better position to know than most of us. Here is what Jens Weiderman thinks and he happens to be in agreement with messers Junker and Tusk.

And this piece from Ful Fact explains something about EU/UK trade. As it is non-aligned it takes no side, unlike Moody's.

[Suff]

You posted a BBC article to support yourself on the EU... You bad man...

Yes what he said was correct in it's statement. The UK would loose it's AUTOMATIC right. That does not mean that any other rights to do not exist and it also does not mean that those banks may not choose to stay in the UK and carry on their transactions in a less direct way.

The Moody article also stated a Categoric Truth. That the mechanism to carry out these trades from outside the EU does exist and is being used today.

The OPINION that all these companies would HAVE to leave the UK is just that, and opinion. But it is being stated as FACT. Something I'm beginning to become somewhat irritated about.

In fact, the way the EU has started demanding back taxes on legally submitted tax returns which were accepted by the government concerned, might lead the banks to stay in the UK and trade over the border.

If we carry on as we are, in 5 years the EU will be less than 18% of world GDP and that will continue to fall as a %. If we were to create the world market for Renmimbi in the UK, the trade volume could easily exceed the entire EU trades and the EU would be locked out unless we let them in.

The EU might want to tread _very_ carefully on this one or they could find themselves on the outside of $62tn worth of trades which they are not entitled to trade in unless they move their banking business to the UK.

Nobody is talking about that right now, but, come the time, they will.

It will be nice to see these self important people grovelling for a change.

[Workingman]

We will never agree on this, Suff.

You will keep pushing the potential gains and I will keep on pointing out the possible pitfalls.

In the end both of us might be proved right and wrong at the same time.

[Suff]

In the end both of us might be proved right and wrong at the same time.

Probably...

But I'm a pessimist you know. So this is a big step for me.

[Suff]

And the news rolls on.

The OECD excuses itself from it's dire predictions by saying, in roundabout terms, that it would have been right if the BOE and the Treasury had been totally stupid and damaged the hell out of the country.

REALLY?????

What kind of prediction is that? I'll tell you what. It's a political prediction to try and frighten the people into doing what they want. Expect the predictions of poor performance in 2017 [fixed] to roll back by mid next year as the evidence shows the opposite.

The phrase "we've had enough of the experts" comes back to mind. As their mealy mouthed backtracking rolls on people are not as stupid as the governments would like to think them.

[medsec222]

Well I'm an optimist and as far as Brexit goes the sooner the better. We will have to get on with it and take it one step at a time. What's not to like about regaining our sovereignty and taking control of our own borders.

[Suff]

And now one of the BOE's rate setting members is saying that we've done enough given the current state of the economy.

Or in other words "we panicked and took drastic action and the predicted disaster never unfolded"...

The story will change over time. It's just useful to remember what the story was before.