The Weather.

[Gal]

The weather here was bad yesterday - such very strong gales - but of course nothing compared to the west *sad*

So sad, especially after it was only 6 years since they last had such awful flooding.

[moondancer]

Cumbria and Scotland only got the tail end of the rain and wind after it had had it's way with Ireland and the Isle of Man............



Manxie xx

Are you sure about that Manxie ?

The floods in Carlisle are the worst in living memory and virtually the whole city is underwater.

Don't want to make tis a competition though

[TheOstrich]

The concern for the Lake District is that further rain is forecast throughout next week ....

[saundra]

Iv just been watching the news it's heartbreaking to see the devastation
About time the government stopped 'll this overseas
Aid and helped this country

[Suff]

We seem to be getting 100 year storms and floods every other year these days.

That is the very embodiment of the predictions of Global Warming. The climate changed. So weather events change too.

As far as I can gather this is what is happening. Due to the growing El Nino in the Pacific, the Atlantic hurricane season is muted and the pacific cyclone season is massive, with huge events making their way into the Arctic basin as massive heat bearing storms.

In the Atlantic those weather areas don't turn into full cyclones. Full cyclones, due to their rotation, eventually move into the Gulf or onto the US coast. However undeveloped systems tend to track up the east coast of the US and turn right to run over Britain, Scandinavia and Southern Europe.

Of course a warmer climate can hold more water. So a storm in a warmer climate has more rain. Current average temperatures over pre industrial levels just spiked over 1C. In Paris, today, they are talking about limiting it to 2C although the lobby groups want 2.5C or 3C.

It's interesting to contemplate what kind of storms we would have to deal with and what infrastructure we would have to build to survive a 2C raise in average global world temperatures. Along with the 1ft to 3ft sea level rise of course. At 3ft the Thames Barrier is toast with a moderate storm on the top of the spring tide.....

Food for thought.

[Workingman]

... undeveloped systems tend to track up the east coast of the US and turn right to run over Britain, Scandinavia and Southern Europe.

Of course a warmer climate can hold more water. So a storm in a warmer climate has more rain.

And at a local level that is what we have just seen. Temps across the UK have, for some time now, been well above normal, almost into double figures above normal. Desmond was a "warm" storm in that respect and so brought in more rain than normal. It was also driven by a strong jetstream which did not meander, so it came and then kept on coming.

Unfortunately there are more in the pipeline.

The next but one is to be called Frank. If he is like me he could be heaven or hell.

[miasmum]

Can I ask what is probably a really stupid question, but why aren't other countries affected by global warming?

Everywhere else seems to be having the weather they have always had as far as I can tell. We don't get posts from Ally or Ton regarding huge shifts in weather, nor Weka. My friend has just come back from 2 years in Australia and their weather is the same as ever.

Even when our weather isn't dramatic it is plain wrong. I shouldn't be able to go without a coat in December. My neighbour shouldn't be able to put her washing on the line.

Sorry to be thick, but could one of you clever people explain it to me?

[Workingman]

Shell, not a stupid question at all, other places do have huge shifts in weather, it is whether we get to hear of them to the same extent as those in our back yard.

California is going through the longest drought on record with a record number of wildfires. A couple of winters ago the mid-west suffered an Arctic blast all the way down to Texas with record low temperatures. The western pacific nations, inc Australia and NZ have seen a record number of Typhoons of the highest category. Alpine ski resorts are waiting later and later in the season for decent snows. This year's El Nino event is set to be the strongest ever. The signs are everywhere but we only get news to skim the surface of them.

It is interesting what you say about coats and washing. The weather is very mild for December, as it was for November, and this winter could be one of the mildest on record: wait and see. That mildness helped to make Desmond so devastating. Warm air moves easier (faster) and can carry more moisture, put the two together and they create the perfect storm. When the air hits land and is pushed up into the colder air above the water vapour condenses out to form rain, sleet or snow. Add in the Gulf stream and we get a procession of weather fronts the year round. Northern Europe, Southern Scandinavia and the British Isles are in the direct line of fire of the Gulf stream, if we were not then, being at similar latitudes to Newfoundland in Canada, we should expect similar temperatures. Today it is -11ºC over there.

Had Desmond's average rainfall over the region fallen as snow in Newfoundland conditions it would have been nearly 7ft (2m) deep.

[miasmum]

Thank you Frank, I appreciate you replying and explaining things to me

[Weka]

We had the massive cyclone slide down the country earlier this year, we escaped certain doom though as it stayed out to sea. It hit Vanuatu, there country is still devastated.

We are seeing drought on our east coast. El Niño bring more and larger cyclones. I still remember cyclone bola in the 80's during an El Niño, and it wouldn't surprise me if we have another one this season. A friend lives on an east facing hill very exposed, and is going away for 4 weeks to America, m making her leave me a key, and telling her to prepare her outside for s cyclone before she goes on Saturday. I'm predicting a bit of rain between Christmas new year and another 3rd week Jan. Christmas new year I'm off somewhere very remote, with huge hills to pass to get into the area, and they do slip at times. Should be interesting.....

Oh and I tend to downplay my language,
a bit of rain = fairly large storm system, possibly a cyclone,
a bit of wind or windy = gale force gusting 120-160 km/hr
Hill = mountain ranges.