An interesting point

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An interesting point

Postby Suff » 29 Jan 2015, 06:40

Whilst ruminating over the whole issue with Germany and WWII I was not thinking very much about what Germany is doing today. However the press are doing an interesting job of painting the parallels between Germany of today and Germany of post WWII.

If you read between the lines, it was only the debt forgiveness and refusal to allow war reparations, after WWII, which allowed Germany to come back from the brink and rebuild it's economy into what it has today.

Yet, if you think about it, what Germany is imposing on Greece today is little different from what France imposed on Germany after the end of WWI. And we see the same result. Rampant unemployment, economy in crisis, huge tracts of the country being sold off to richer nations who will repatriate the profits and become richer still, all at Greece's cost.

It is little wonder that the hard left, hard right and Neo Nazi parties are growing in the polls. It is unlikely that, in Greece, Golden Dawn would have grown to where it is today without this massive punishment for "fiscal crimes" in the past. Therefore I find it quite interesting that Germany is now being accused of failing to learn from it's own lessons.

That the press is turning on Germany in this way is also interesting. Also that our own Bank of England's Carney is telling Germany to ease up and become more "European". It's all a bit like a TV soap really, you couldn't make it up could you?

All the sins of the way they bodged together the Euro are now coming home to roost. It's clear that Germany wanted all the benefits of a common currency but none of the downsides of being the largest creditor in a single system. I must admit that Merkel must have been frantically looking to keep things patched up just one more time until we could, by some miracle, weather the mess and grow to better times.

But Germany has clearly forgotten the real message and the real impact of what they are doing. They've been eating their own dog food for so long they really do think it's steak. Germany should have remembered that growth and inflation is the only way to keep the gains you have made when everyone was borrowing money and spending what they can't afford. But Germany has been determined that everyone else will feel the pain and they will keep the gains. Forgetting that if the don't allow growth then inflation will stall and they have been doing everything they can to stop the Eurozone from growing by maniacally trying to ensure that the currency does not fall in value or that inflation does not destroy their gains.

I have consistently, from the very beginning of this crisis, been saying that the only way we will get out of it is to inflate so much that the debt is insignificant. Would it be such a bad thing? The rest of the growing world is running 8% - 15% inflation. Yes if we stand still we become richer in comparison, but if we can't pay our debts and our debts come to what we made in the first place, then what is it all for?

I expect Germany to become increasingly in the spotlight over the next few months as they become more and more determined to drive Greece out of the Eurozone. Something which will be as disastrous for Germany as the rest of the EU. Only the non Eurozone countries who trade heavily outside of the EU will weather that one without much impact and that is really only the UK.

Another interesting point I had not realised and nobody is talking about. There is a young Greek man living in the apartment above me here in Brussels. I asked him what he thought about the Government change and he told me a very strange thing.

He said "I'm worried about being able to work here, what if we lose the Euro and have to leave Schengen, how will I work here". Just what have they been telling the Greeks at home? Do the Greeks believe that a Euro exit will stop them travelling and working in the EU. If so they must have been desperate indeed to vote the way they did. When I told him that Britain is neither in the Euro nor Schengen and I can work without a visa I could see his scepticism. When I told him that if they even had to exit the EU and dropped to the EEA then he would still be able to work here like the Norwegians and the Swiss, he was even more sceptical.

It's incredible the lies that governments can get away with that the press and the people at large don't challenge or even research. The EU is open to all with an internet connection. You can see and read what they do and do not allow and can see and read what each country can do and not do within the EU. I would have thought it would have been important enough for the warring political parties to make this clear.

Meanwhile the Euro continues to fall. My pay cut is now £700 per month and climbing. I got a call from a Swiss agency about a Job in Switzerland with a Swiss bank yesterday. I told him to go ahead and put me forward. This situation in the EU and the Eurozone is only going to get worse in the short term. Switzerland is not seen as being impacted by it on the financial markets and now they have pulled their peg to the Euro, they are pretty stable whilst the Euro falls.

Cheap holidays in Spain this year..... :lol: :lol: :P :P :idea: :mrgreen: :ugeek:
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Re: An interesting point

Postby Kaz » 29 Jan 2015, 08:35

I can also see the parallels you are drawing, and agree - it is a worry, and will only serve to further encourage extreme right wing politics :(
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Re: An interesting point

Postby manxie » 29 Jan 2015, 10:30

I too have been watching all this, we here in the Isle of Man are again a bit different as we are not full members, I am retired ,but were I younger I couldn't go work in the EU or the UK nor would I ever get any benefits automatically, even now we have to have health insurance to go 30 miles to Blackpool Lancashire if we want a weekend break for instance, any benefits we were to get from the uk if living and working there for instance the Manx government has to repay to the UK governemt.
The Isle of Man has never got anything from the eu either financially or in any other way, and it is almost as badly treated by the UK we get no help from them either, infact we have to pay them for any help we need abroad from british embassies and also pay towards defence and such, etc we also have to pay to the UK VAT on everything, and being a small island we obviously have to import a lot of our requirements from the UK as there is little produced here.
It would be great if we could get handouts to better our lot even the freedom to travel or work would be nice for those who want to leave the island to better themselves.
Our students who go to a Uni in the UK have to pay the same fees as an international student so costing our youngsters even more to get an education?
We are also much maligned and called a tax haven unfairly as in many areas our laws and strict finance rules are far in excess of the UK and certainly moreso than many other countries who are not even tarred by the same stick and called tax havens.
I realise we are in a very different situation being Manx but,...it would be nice to get a little help now and then from others better off.
Thankfully I live on a very safe island with little crime etc and my government I believe has created one of the few countries in the world who actually have reserves and do not owe to the international bank as do so many other countries.
Still frustrating tho to be dictated to by the EU and the UK over so much that restricts us and sets us apart from others, and to see so many billions
of pounds given to huge countries with enormous populations compared to our little 80,000 of us does rankle a bit.

Rant over lol

Manxie xx
Last edited by manxie on 29 Jan 2015, 13:07, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: An interesting point

Postby Workingman » 29 Jan 2015, 11:58

One important point often missed with regards to post war Germany and its economic recovery is its defence, which to some extent continues to this day. The hardware and manpower were largely provided by the US, UK, to a smaller extent France and also to its neighbouring NATO allies. Although Germany made fiscal payments to help these forces it did not have a standing defence force of any note, nor much hardware. It had (cheap) conscription for its manpower, but not much else.This situation was sold by the US and UK as a necessary evil of the Cold War.

The amount of money saved by W. Germany in those times was able to be used to grow its economy and on infrastructure projects. In its defence it did use those monies wisely, especially for its industry, but Europe would most probably be a very different place had W. Germany been obliged to pay its (true) way in the world.
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Re: An interesting point

Postby Aggers » 29 Jan 2015, 12:19

manxie wrote:I too have been watching all this, we here in the Isle of Man are again a bit different as we are not full members, rules are far in excess of the UK and certainly moreso than many other countries who are not even tarred by the same stick and called tax havens.


You have surprised me, Manxie. I always thought that the I.O.M was part of the UK. :o
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Re: An interesting point

Postby Suff » 29 Jan 2015, 13:03

No big surprise to me, perhaps the scale of the separation but not the function of it. I feel for you Manxie, but you are in a cleft stick. Not large enough to really and truly be self sufficient but not willing to give the keys of the country to the idiots in Westminster.

WM, other things are also never talked about for the days of NATO in BAOR. The US and the UK paid annually for the use of the country for exercises and also paid to upgrade all of the Autobahn bridges to 100Tonnes so that they would have unlimited access to their tank transporters....

Germany took hundreds of billions from the UK and the US, used it in their economy and then are "holier than thou" about how fiscally good they are. Only the heavily skewed EU which rewards German expansion and punishes attempts to stop Germany from expanding into another country, could keep them on top.

I notice that nothing was said about how much of Greece was being sold off to China.... Now stopped. Tsirpas has made a good start. Everyone expected him to back down and back off from precipitate action. In fact he's moved faster and more surely than anyone expected. Putting the EU, ECB and Germany on the back foot.

Expect the roaring lion of the EU to take a little time to wind up. Then they'll huff and puff and either put up or back down... I notice the German press was at the Commission building last night. I wonder who they were waiting for??
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Re: An interesting point

Postby manxie » 29 Jan 2015, 13:06

Nope we are part of the British Isles but not the UK. There are hundreds if not more firms in say Lancashire for instance who will not send an item you may wish to purchase to the Isle of Man even though it is only 30-50 miles away and the post office deliver daily, this is a common answer I get when trying to order online, yet buy through Amazon and often it is cheaper and free delivery too so explain that one to me lol.

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