Germany set to commit heavy weapons to Ukraine

[Suff]

Except when you get into the details, you find out that what is on offer are 1970's designed equipment, some requiring operational refit of "several weeks" and others being decommissioned troop carriers which need complete refurbishment.

Open and read down. It is more damning with every word that is printed beyond the initial blurb.

Meanwhile other NATO countries are shipping first line defence weapons and are now moving to deliver rapid mobility artillery and looking at heavy armour too.

I must admit that I'm wondering if the German reluctance to ship heavy weapons to Ukraine has more to do with exposing just how little defence Germany has, rather than a reluctance to escalate the engagement.

They can count themselves extraordinarily lucky that Biden is asleep at the wheel. Trump would have jumped on this like a terrier on a rat and torn their heads off.

[cromwell]

The Germans are between a rock and a hard place.
If they help Ukraine too much Putin turns the gas off and the German economy takes a massive hit.
Do nothing and every other country can slag them off.
There's a good article in the Telegraph today about Germany being a modern superpower who thought that peace could be maintained through trade, and how that has suddenly gone wrong.

[Workingman]

Yesterday Lavrov claimed that these arms shipments meant that "in essence" Russia was at war with NATO because Ukrainian forces using those weapons were proxy NATO troops. That is the Russian view, like it or not.

We also have serious politicians on all sides warning that this local war could turn into WW3. It would not be the first time that war between neighbours became a major regional war - or worse. Cool heads and heavy diplomacy are needed.

There is also real concern that such an extended war could go nuclear - it is also being openly talked about, and we can bet that behind closed doors it is under a powerful microscope.

At least the UN has finally pulled its finger out. It just remains to be seen what good it can do.

[Suff]

Russia didn't have to have any of this issue with NATO. Simply put it didn't need to carry out an all out nation state war against Ukraine.

It is that simple.

Yes there are issues. Yes Russia is a Nuclear state. But, equally, now we are testing the fact that Nuclear states may decide to use the Nuclear stick to simply take over other nations. The question is, "do we let them"? Because there is only one possible end to that and that is Nuclear war. Because any bully like that will, eventually, exceed tolerance and will be pushed back against. If that nation does not escalate into Nuclear, every state they took over with the threat will revolt together in one go. Crushing them.

This is not a time to panic, back off, or "let cooler heads talk". Because the first thing those "cooler heads" will try to do is decide how much of Ukraine Russia gets to keep as a reward for their aggression. A lesson that should have been learned with Crimea but was not. This is a time to stand up and tell Russia "You can go back to your border unmolested, right now. Or you can stay and be crushed. If you try to go Nuclear your entire country will be wiped off the face of the earth and we will start with the leaders".

Also it is the time to say "Leave and we'll let you be, without reparations. Stay and it will be a LOT worse".

Russia is not the USSR, it doesn't have the power and it cannot be treated the same way. It can either be a member of the community of nations or it can get it's ass kicked.

All of this "Talk" has gone nowhere. Because Russia still thinks it can win if we talk. The reason Russia is upping the rhetoric is because they think they can bluff us into backing off and letting them win in Ukraine. Time enough to "talk" when it is about how Russian forces leave Ukraine and I mean totally. There is only one way this ends. With Russia back in Russian territory and the whole of Ukraine (breakaway territories and all), back under Ukrainian control. Then they can "Talk" to Russia about when they are going to leave Crimea.

Anything else and you're going to see a lot more dead babies, raped mothers and bodies in mass graves shot in the back of the head. Not very nice public viewing.

As for Germany? They are rapidly going to prove they are a paper tiger. Showing that their NATO spending has been in paperwork and make work and that their defence forces are entirely without teeth. At which point their lack of fulfilling the 2% of GDP for NATO defence spending will become a big issue again. I could even see the US voting Trump back in to deal with this single issue.

[Workingman]

Suff, hawkish tub-thumping and emotive language serve no useful purpose. Russia is not going to get its "ass kicked" as it can kick ours back in spades, And if it tries to go nuclear it will not be wiped off the face of the Earth without us suffering the same fate. MAD.

Make no mistake, going nuclear does us all in, it really is why cool heads have to talk.

Try this for the reality of nuclear war.

Time to talk.

[Suff]

I know far more than I want to about nuclear war. But I also know that bullies are cowards at heart and yo do not bow down to them.

The only way you lose to a bully is by backing down to them. It is why we have NATO, to ensure the price of acting like a bully is too high.

In this case it is crystal clear that the one thing Russia understands is that they cannot win in Ukraine if the west keep funnelling weapons to them.

Equally they cannot win a nuclear war.

They may threaten and bluster and try to scare us. But in the end they no longer live for a bankrupt political ideology, they live for wealth and power.

Neither of which you can have if you are dead.

You need to stop thinking anything reasonable will come of talks. This is nothing more than grand larceny and they need to know it is not acceptable.

We do that by showing them the consequences of their actions. Not by justifying them with talks.

[Workingman]

Equally they cannot win a nuclear war.

And we can? I would love to see you hawks explain how.

As for grand larceny, I suggest that you read up on the area known as Ukraine from its Mongol Horde Khanate, to its vassal state (not the modern borders) under the Ottomans, to it purchase from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth by Russia, Peter the Great, to its formation as a SSR after the revolution.

Its history is very convoluted and not as simple as you hawks make it out to be. As a 'country' it has never been at peace with itself.

[Suff]

Nobody can win a nuclear war. What is needed is not to run away from it but to remind Russia of that.

Yes I know the history is convoluted. However after the UN and the international agreements since then, this kind of action has become nothing more than theft.

Time to remind everyone of that.

This softly approach doesn't work with Putin, any more than it did with Hitler or Stalin.

When they talked Russia entered the room as if they already owned Ukraine and could say and do what they want. They were rebuffed and now Russia is attempting a pretty desperate act to cut the country in two whilst lashing out to all and sundry with threats of escalating levels of violence.

You want to negotiate with that? Be my guest. I'd rather negotiate with a toddler.