Is omicron really a bad thing?

[Suff]

I'm also struggling to align the hype vew.

There are, allegedly, around 400 cases of Omicron in the UK as of yesterday. But THEY ARE DOUBLING EVERY 2/3 DAYS AND WILL BE THE PREDOMINENT STRAIN IN A MONTH.

OK, if it is 400 now, then in another 31 days, doubling every 3 days, that will be 409,600 cases of Omicron by then. But not all will be active.

Today we have 1,124,581 active cases which are predominantly Delta. We are having around 30,000 to 40,000 recoveries every day too.

To reach even 562,290 of active Omicron cases would take a little more than a month; but that would be total cases. To actually reach that number of active cases would take until about half way through another month.

Given that doubling every 3 days remains constant. Which it won't. 1+1=2 is doubling. But 400,000 to 800,000 takes a damned sight more transmissibility than 1+1.

[cromwell]

Just seen on line "So far, Alec Baldwin has killed more people than Omicron". Harsh but true.

[Suff]

They are acting exactly the same way as they did when there was no vaccine.

They told us we had to get vaccinated because there was no way out of lockdowns, masks and social distancing. So we got vaccinated.

Only to find out that the second the politicians feel threatened, there is no way out of lockdowns, masks and social distancing.

So why bother?

[cromwell]

Exactly so.
The vaccines were our way out of this. So now I've had three jabs but restrictions are back anyway.
So why bother indeed.
If people just go on doing what they are told this is never going to end.

[Workingman]

Could it possibly be that if we hadn't had lockdowns, sanitised, wore masks, socially distanced, worked from home, had furlough, shut the likes of cinemas and clubs and then produced vaccines there would be many thousands more dead than we currently have?

Why did most of the world do much the same?

If only the damned virus had listened to us and not mutated. We could all be partying like it's 1999.

[TheOstrich]

It really is squeaky-bum time until we know for certain if Omicron is going to cause hospitalisations, and crucially at what level.
It may not be overly scientific, but my fingers are firmly crossed,

[Suff]

Could it possibly be that if we hadn't had lockdowns, sanitised, wore masks, socially distanced, worked from home, had furlough, shut the likes of cinemas and clubs and then produced vaccines there would be many thousands more dead than we currently have?

I'm not arguing that. What I am saying is that the "Justification" for all those actions was "we don't have a vaccine.

Well now we do have a vaccine. Further deployed than any Flu vaccine has ever been.

So now we're told "Well you have to do all that stuff we told you before even though you DO have a vaccine".

Any logical and sane person is simply going to say "why" and after "why" prove it. In fact, the numbers don't prove it. They prove the opposite.

I will grant you, 100%, that action had to be taken before the vaccine and it is there in the tale of deaths we had anyway.

Now justify taking that action now. Every time a variant comes out there is this howling and wailing that it "might" evade the vaccine and it "could" cause 200,000 to 600,000 new cases per day and thousands of deaths per day.

The sane person in the street needs to say "prove it". The chart below does NOT prove it. In fact, if anything, it proves the vaccine works and works against variants.

[Workingman]

Which part of it being a dynamic situation do people not get?

Omicron has more than 30 changes to the spike protein. It is new. It did not exist when the first vaccines were being produced. It is more transmissible. Nobody knows which way it will go so they have a good look.

There just are not enough data studies for us to know what to do, but the empirical evidence says that we must do something. That's the evidence looked at by those working tirelessly with the data to try to work out what.

Then comes Bob down "Spoons". He hasn't met anyone who has caught it let alone died from it. He hasn't been jabbed and has remained Covid free. His research says that we should all party and snog like there's no tomorrow under the mistletoe or in a cupboard if no mistletoe is available.

Bob wins coz he's got the (made up) numbers to prove it.

[Suff]

Which part of it being a dynamic situation do people not get?

Omicron has more than 30 changes to the spike protein. It is new. It did not exist when the first vaccines were being produced. It is more transmissible. Nobody knows which way it will go so they have a good look.

There just are not enough data studies for us to know what to do, but the empirical evidence says that we must do something. That's the evidence looked at by those working tirelessly with the data to try to work out what.

Then comes Bob down "Spoons". He hasn't met anyone who has caught it let alone died from it. He hasn't been jabbed and has remained Covid free. His research says that we should all party and snog like there's no tomorrow under the mistletoe or in a cupboard if no mistletoe is available.

Bob wins coz he's got the (made up) numbers to prove it.

Well I'm not bob and that is government data and it is not made up.

The point is that the government didn't say "well you get locked down now, take the vaccine you don't want later and if it all morphs into something else we'll do the same to you all over again."

Because if they'd have said that they would have had civil disobedience from the outset. Now the decisions they took at the outset, to "promise" a course of action, 1000% supported by those who are "working tirelessly with the data", as the correct path to follow, is coming back to haunt them. People are saying "we did our bit, pony up or fess up". Quite rightly.

What are people supposed to believe? Fluid situation? Fluid dictatorship is all they see and it is not because they see dictators under the bed everywhere they look. It is because the government and the "spurts" told them what to do and how it would play out. No tolerance for deviation now, that is just lying by omission.

These data show the vaccines work. Yes people are still dying. But people are going to die no matter what because we can't lock down forever and the second we unlock it's coming back. No doubt, no question. You can't hide from this virus and you can't avoid this virus. You can prepare and weather the storm.

We did all the preparation. Now nobody wants to stand up and say "weather the storm". Tough. They wanted the job, TS that it's not the land of milk and honey they expected.

[cromwell]

Every time a variant comes out there is this howling and wailing that it "might" evade the vaccine and it "could" cause 200,000 to 600,000 new cases per day and thousands of deaths per day.

The sane person in the street needs to say "prove it". The chart below does NOT prove it. In fact, if anything, it proves the vaccine works and works against variants.

Exactly this.
That malteser head Javid was spouting that we might see one million cases per day. Yeah, heard that one before.
There is no evidence for these restrictions.
The only evidence there is is that Omicron is typical of what happens in a pandemic - that the virus gets more infectious but weaker in effect.
Not one person, anywhere, has died from it. Hospitalisations are down.
"Following the science". I don't think so.