United Ireland / break up of the UK

[cromwell]

Will a united Ireland happen in our lifetime?
The UK media is working itself into a frenzy about the break up of the UK. A frenzy which seems to be totally absent amongst most of the populace around here.
In one way this is the media doing what the media does - creating the next problem.
But there is no doubt that Northern Ireland is a fascinating case demographically.
Most of the children at school in NI are catholic. Belfast is now a catholic majority city. The protestant population is older and declining. At some point in the near future catholics will be a majority in NI.

Plus NI voted to remain in the EU, by quite some margin. A united Ireland would provide EU membership for the north.

Unfortunately as an Irish Times article I read pointed out, it would also provide the Irish government with a massive financial problem. The Times pointed out that in reality, although a united Ireland would be a coup for the government it would also bring a massive financial burden with it. Realistically, said the Irish Times, Irish politicians don't want that.

Plus as Osc pointed out not so long ago, some people in the south have no particular wish to have people like Arlene Foster on board, at all.

So what then? A united Ireland but with the British government paying in for years to maintain financial stability in NI? That's political suicide for any British government.

These things are never simple.

[Suff]

It might have been an issue with another crippled government, but with a massive majority, the press can go whistle.

The EU withdrawal bill is being modified to block an extension (I wonder who gave them that Idea), so when, not if, it passes, we are leaving at the end of 2020. With or without a decision on Ireland.

Because the EU no longer have a lever on the border situation, by delaying an exit or a trade deal, expect the government to say to everyone, without viable constructive offer, to take a hike.

In that scenario, NI remains in the UK and if anyone wants to set up a border, they can get on with it.

The whole situation changed on Dec 12th but the press haven't caught up yet.

[Workingman]

In the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement referendum, 1998 676,966 said Yes = 71.1%.

In the Nineteenth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland referendum 1,442,583 said Yes = 94.39%.

And so it was that a multilateral agreement was signed on 10 April 1998 to come into effect on 2 December 1999. Those involved were the Government of the United Kingdom, the Government of Ireland and Parties in Northern Ireland, though not the DUP. That's it.

The GFA acknowledged that a majority of the people of Northern Ireland wished to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and also that a substantial section of the people of Northern Ireland, and the majority of the people of the island of Ireland, wished to bring about a united Ireland.

Both views were legitimate.

The agreement was that Northern Ireland was part of the United Kingdom, and would remain so until a majority of the people both of Northern Ireland and of the Republic of Ireland wished otherwise. The decision would be by a border polls, one in the Republic and one in N.I. The provisions of which are enshrined in law. Should the polls happen, then the British and Irish governments are under "a binding obligation" to implement that choice.

The ultimate decision is for the peoples of the island of Ireland. It matters not one jot who the Taoiseach or the PM are, nor what their majorities are in their respective parliaments, nor what the press or the rest of us think. The Irish, all of them, will decide.

[Suff]

In the Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement referendum, 1998 676,966 said Yes = 71.1%.

The Irish, all of them, will decide.

Only if they are asked. At this time that is not on the table and the thing most likely to trigger that question is whether NI becomes separated from the UK due to a deal with the EU. The chances of which are becoming smaller day by day.

Don't get me wrong, I've been 100% certain of this since I was in the Army. My view has been that the resolution to the situation with Ireland is the responsibility of the Irish and nobody else. But they have to decide. It got me into quite a bit of trouble when my Captain asked me my opinion. When he heard it he was pretty unhappy with the response.

I'm just stating where we are today. No Stormont, strong UK government, we're leaving the EU and nothing is going to stop that now. NI will not be left behind now and anyone who tries to make that happen will be sidelined.

If, however, the people of NI decide that they want to leave the UK and join the republic, that will be their choice. However someone has to agree to the question to be put to them.

I haven't seen anything like that. Did I miss something?