Did someone forget

[Suff]

During the independence fiasco in Scotland, that a general election would be coming in Scotland as well as England and that the election would have a very different voting population?

This poll shows that Labour and the Lib Dems are going to be heavily punished in the next election.

But, says the innocent viewer "Scotland voted to stay".

Well, yes, the people living in Scotland at that time, from 16 years old, voted to stay. However this is not a general election. Where those of 18 years and up, UK citizens and not registered to vote anywhere else, get to vote. This is quite important as just Edinburgh alone grew 10% in 2 years with immigration from Easter Europe. That 50,000 population will have no vote in this election.

So now Labour and the Lib Dems have to face the voters for their shenanigans during the Independence referendum. Those Scots, over 18, registered to vote, who wanted out of the Union. Even most of the servicemen and women will have their votes delegated back home wherever they came from in the UK.

One thing I am looking forward to is the pain the Lib Dems are going to feel. I would dearly love to see them with only 2 seats in the entire UK, but I think that they won't drop below 5 in the long run. At 5 seats they remain statistically viable in British politics, at 2 they run the risk of losing all their seats at the next general election for being something which has passed and can be ignored.

Funnily enough, the Tories may do slightly better than usual at this election as their voters were strongly mobilised during the referendum and will remember that they have to come out and vote to get a result they want. Also Tories who switched to Lib Dem will be heartily disgusted with their performance in the coalition.

Areas in the highlands, as the poll shows, may bleed Tories to the SNP, but in the lowlands it may be quite different. I would be looking to see what North East Fife, the Borders and Lothian do. Cameron might get a boost he did not expect.

Either way, this poll keeps Clegg and Miliband quite unhappy which is enough for me for now.

[Suff]

To add some more Analysis to that.

I did like the last paragraph...

It would have seemed unimaginable in 2010; but as early as 2011 it had already happened in SNP landslide at Holyrood – in the constituency contests, the Lib Dems could only hold on in these islands. Anyone who still doubts the polls, should remember that Scotland has already given all the Westminster parties the boot at the ballot box once. It now looks poised to do the same thing in elections to Westminster itself.

[Suff]

Reading the Herald Scotland view on the polls I came to an interesting thought.

English voters might want to think long and hard about the consequences of voting Labour. Because the stated aim of the largest number of switchers is that they would like the SNP to coalition with Labour to create change in Britain. If the English want to think that through, it means a large body of Scots wagging the Labour dog to make change in England. Perhaps full English federalism which the English do NOT want.

Perhaps English Labour voters might think, given the alternatives, that the UKIP might be a better place for their vote than Labour. Even if it lets the Tories in, it would be far less damaging to England than a Lab/SNP coalition. In fact the Tories would strengthen English control on English affairs, possibly to the detriment of the rest of the UK.

For once I'd like to see the press do a full cross region/cross party/cross country analysis of the aftermath of the Independence referendum in Scotland and what it means to Westminster politics. A 7% swing is statistically significant no matter where it comes from and Scotland is looking like at least a swing of that magnitude on the scale of UK Westminster politics.

[Workingman]

Ashcroft ia a former Deputy Chaiman of the Conservative Party so it is no surprise that his polls are damaging for Labour, no problem there.

However, we don't need his polls. Everybody has known for a long time that Labour and LibDems will be wiped out in Scotland. The SNP MPs will then march on Westminster and do what they will do.

I will say this, though. The first time they get involved with what is effectively an English law the sky will fall in on Hague (English MP vetos) and the English political establishment. This time it will be the turn of the English to round on their politicians. They were told in no uncertain terms that we would not accept some cobbled together half-way house following Scottish devolution, yet there has been no movement whatsoever to offer us something substantial.

It will be an interesting election - the aftermath might be engossing.

[Suff]

That's the point thought isn't it. The Scots are heavily punishing the main parties by voting SNP, yet the English simply haven't got there yet. They still think they can enact change by voting the same and wishing harder.....

The new Scotland Bill is supposed to be through before the end of this parliament. The new English Bills won't. Giving the SNP the ability to interfere where the English can't interfere back. Although I have severe reservations about the whole English bit. Because whatever 85% of the UK does impacts the rest. Taxation, as mentioned, is a big one. Scotland have not been given that competence, yet if the Scots are blocked from voting on English taxation then they could be massively impacted. Only one possible outcome from that is a new referendum and a Yes vote even with Oil out of the equation.

Oh and I'm sure plenty of Scots blood is boiling about the whole "England is absorbing the loss of Scottish Oil value". Yes, well, when you take 90% of the revenue, you take 90% of the loss of revenue. 50% loss of an 80% gain is still 40% more than you would have had....

[Workingman]

They still think they can enact change by voting the same and wishing harder.....

If that is the disparaging view north of the border then God help us.

Lest the other nations forget, we horrible English do not have our own parliament; the only country within the UK not to have one. Nor do we have any parties to rally behind such as Plaid, the various NI parties or the SNP. UKIP simply does not fit the bill, we need an ENP.

Westminster is not the seat of our (English) government, it is the seat of the UK government. The umbrella for Scotland, Wales, NI and England. However, it is being used (abused) in a dual role. That might suit the cohort of English MPs, but it certainly is not what the English people want, nor, I suspect, do the other countries of the UK.

There will have to come a time when we have four devolved nations working, each for their own, but also co-operating under a UK government. If that does not happen then Gordon Brown will probably be right (Bless me Father for I have sinned) in saying the break up of the UK is inevitable. That would not be in the interests of any of us.

I would not particularly like to see it, but it would not surprise me if an English independence movement started up. And if it said to the rest: "Sod off, we are on our way and we are taking X, Y and Z with us. Don't call us and we won't call you." who could complain?

[cromwell]

Lest the other nations forget, we horrible English do not have our own parliament; the only country within the UK not to have one.

Nor will we ever, if the main 3 parties get their way. Scots can belong to Scotland, The Welsh can have Wales, the English? The English can belong to a "region".

I would not particularly like to see it, but it would not surprise me if an English independence movement started up.

Whereas if the UK is to break up, I would quite like that.

But the powers that be and their faithful megaphones, the BBC and Sky news, will move heaven and earth to stop it happening. We will not be given the option of an English Parliament. The destiny for the English is already written - "regional assemblies" or some variation of them. Months and years of TV propaganda talking about "our region", giving disproportionate amounts of air time to parties like Maybon Kernow from Cornwall and pretending that they aren't really two men and a dog.

This is the problem. The "regions" of England were created after the Maastricht treaty of the early 90's made it easier to do so. The so called English devolution of powers to the regions is a sham. Power is devolved from Westminster to the regions in English regionalism.

But English regionalism is a part of EU Federalism, which also believes in power devolved from national governments downwards to the regions, but also believes in power being devolved upwards from national governments to Brussels.

The long term aim being the reduction in importance of nations, and the creation of phony "regions" within the EU to replace them.

You will never, ever, hear the EU mentioned when devolution of powers to the regions is mentioned. The pretence is that this is purely an English matter, But it isn't, this is happening by design within the framework of the EU.

If the UK breaks up I want an English Parliament - I will never accept the abolition of my country. End of.

[Suff]

If the UK breaks up I want an English Parliament - I will never accept the abolition of my country. End of.

Did you ever stop to consider that with 85% of the representation in Westminster you already have your own parliament. The fact that the English can't make their own mind up and vote in a total majority of one single English party is not the fault of the others.

If even 60% of English MP's decide they want something, then the rest of the UK has no say whatsoever.

I was rabidly against regional assemblies. Specifically for this reason. I have always felt that if you want to be independent then you take the pain of being independent and don't lean on anyone else.

WM is right that England does not need regionalisation. England needs the ENP with 51% of the Westminster MP's. The problem is; I don't think the English would vote for them.... Now there's a story in it's own right.......

[Workingman]

Did you ever stop to consider that with 85% of the representation in Westminster you already have your own parliament.

No, we do not, Westminster is the UK parliament. The English might well have 85% of the seats, and that has always been a problem for the UK, but we have no way of passing our own laws. Unlike devolved powers we always have input from the other three nations.

The problem is; I don't think the English would vote for them.

That is possibly the case at present, but there is a groundswell of opinion that we will have our own parliament with devolved powers. One idea very much taking hold is that we should have four devolved parliaments with an umbrella parliament for the UK made up of representatives from the four nations in a format that no one country can rule to the exclusion of the others. In numbers NI, Wales and Scotland = England. England would need support from some in NI, Wales or Scotland to get its (UK) laws passed and NI, Wales and Scotland would need English support to get their way. We have a few interesting years/decades ahead of us.

[Suff]

No, we do not, Westminster is the UK parliament.

You see there is the fundamental problem. The rest of the countries see it as the English parliament where they get to have their say when the English are squabbling too much....

That is possibly the case at present, but there is a groundswell of opinion that we will have our own parliament with devolved powers. One idea very much taking hold is that we should have four devolved parliaments with an umbrella parliament for the UK made up of representatives from the four nations in a format that no one country can rule to the exclusion of the others. In numbers NI, Wales and Scotland = England. England would need support from some in NI, Wales or Scotland to get its (UK) laws passed and NI, Wales and Scotland would need English support to get their way. We have a few interesting years/decades ahead of us.

In fact, if England were to gain it's own parliament then it should gain representation in Westminster in the same proportion to each of the others i.e. each of the 4 countries gets 1/4 of the vote because it is only for legislation which matters to all 4 and therefore each of the 4 should have an equal vote. On English only votes they would have their own parliament, so, therefore, on UK wide votes they would need to convince at least two of the others. In the scenario you stated, England could always block but the others would only be able to block if they all stood together.

Not a nice thought for the English though.