Some more balanced news

[Suff]

Which, of course, is coming from Scotland

[Workingman]

That can only come to pass if there is currency union, and the Treasury, Chancellor and Governor of the BoE have all stated quite clearly that will not happen.

If Scotland unilaterally decides to use the £ sterling it will have no lender of last resort, the BoE will no be it, fiscal policy and interest rates will be set by the BoE on behalf of the UK and not Scotland.

[Aggers]

If Scotland leaves us, why should they be allowed to use English currency?

We don't allow foreign countries to do that, do we?

[Rodo]

Just watched Last Night of the Proms and was wondering about Land of Hope and Glory and all the flags etc. Also the Scottish orchestra who sometimes play - what is going to happen to all that if................

[Suff]

This was not about currency Union. It was about banks which have grown oversize for Scotland, due to the Union with the rest of GB, moving to England and taking the risk of default or banks failing with them.

It was an article about the + side of all these banks making contingency plans to move their HQ to England.

After all, they are mostly part owned by Westminster anyway.

But, you see, the No side immediately say that this is "Only with currency Union". In fact, it doesn't matter whether they use currency Union or not. This is about risk management. Scotland doesn't need banks this size if they secede. So why should it be an issue if they leave and take their debt and risk with them. After all I talked about RBS "Group". Which is way larger than the Royal Bank of Scotland. I have no doubt that NatWest, internally, is massively larger than the original RBS. NatWest is English and always has been. So, in fact, the portion of the debt which Westminster owns on RBS Group is proportionally larger English debt than Scottish.

But why would a good story get in the way of a few facts? The press will never give you the facts but I've worked in RBS Edinburgh.

[Suff]

Just watched Last Night of the Proms and was wondering about Land of Hope and Glory and all the flags etc. Also the Scottish orchestra who sometimes play - what is going to happen to all that if................

Land of dope and stories (of the past), more like.

Long time since the UK was massively larger than any other country and the US was just a backwards rabble of farming states... Loooong time.

[Workingman]

You would go on a long journey to fill a mini-bus with economists who agree with his assessment; and he is hinting at currency union.

RBS's plan to move its head office nameplate from Edinburgh to London in the event of a Yes vote should ensure that the Bank of England will remain its lender of last resort.

The Bank of England will only be lender of last resort with currency union, and that is not on offer. So, Salmond's Plan A is out of the window. His Plan B is to use the pound anyway, but Scotland would have no control over the Bank of England, and would have to pay its debts in a currency whose interest rate decisions are made in a foreign country.

Now this is where it gets scary; If things went wrong Scotland could simply default on its debt. Salmond has said that Scotland would walk away from its share of Britain’s national debt if the UK refused to “share the assets” of the Bank of England in a currency union. That should really scare the "Yes" vote. If Scotland freely and willingly defaults it will find it almost impossible to borrow at affordable rates.

At present, other than in normal operations, there is no risk to UK banks and no spectre of default. However, there is certainly one scenario where either or both could be the case and it would be prudent of those involved to take steps to mitigate them before they happen.

[pederito1]

Time for me to enter the fray I think. My view is fairly clear cut, if the majority Scots want it and there is nothing in the Treaty to prevent it then then I say good luck to them. They will probably need it.

[Suff]

Now this is where it gets scary; If things went wrong Scotland could simply default on its debt. Salmond has said that Scotland would walk away from its share of Britain’s national debt if the UK refused to “share the assets” of the Bank of England in a currency union.

No, that is how it was reported. But I actually saw that clip. What Salmond said was this.

You ran up that debt without our vote or help. If you deny us the benefits of the market which created that debt, then you can keep the debt as we will not be bound by it.

It is quite simple, the United Kingdom ran up that debt to benefit the entire United Kingdom through the mechanism of the English £. If the United Kingdom denies the Scots the access to the English £, which ran up the debt in the first place, then don't come looking for the ostracised to bear a portion of the burden.

In reality, the banks who are partially owned by that debt would probably have to move to registered offices in England. That move would simplify the situation greatly.

I must admit these comments about how Scotland would "need luck" if they left are so way off the mark that it's laughable.

If Scotland leaves the UK England is going to need all the luck it can get. Because when Scotland leaves with circa 20% of UK GDP, which GDP underpins the £1.1tn Westminster has managed to run up, capital is going to flee England in floods. Why? Because the Austerity England will need to put in place to balance the budget will be massive compared to what has already been seen.

Why does anyone think that all the parties are in Scotland offering them the world and everyone in it? Because they would be a poor and impoverished nation in need of help and succour?

NO because they're going to walk off with all the money England has been using to balance the books. Westminster will have to make massive readjustments. The English will have to be told the truth. The Scots will already know it, as their budget and spending power will be much higher.

These politicians are not running up to Scotland to "Save the Union". They're running to Scotland to save their collective asses. All of them.

The English can thank their lucky stars the situation is so hopelessly confused up there. Were the real truth to be known, there are more than 50% of Scots who would vote Yes to readdress that balance....