Vocal Voices

Is Russia wanting to invade
The Ukraine?

Power.
Politics.
Control over the black sea


And because the Ukraine gave him an excuse by the way they caused a rebellion
Finally, Because they are a key conduit for energy from the old USSR days.

Thanks stuff I thought that was the case
Frightening times

Russia already controls the Black Sea with its fleet of naval forces, some 24 major vessels from Cruisers, Frigates, Corvettes and Submarines, plus many other naval resources. All locked in by the Bosporus which could easily be blockaded.

Not sure about the gas situation. In 2018 Putin put in place plans to stop using Ukraine as a gas conduit to Europe hence Nord Stream 1 & 2 and Turk Stream. It follows from the 2005 - 2011 spat about Ukraine stealing gas and the cost of transit.

What he appears to want is control of the ethnic Russian eastern Ukraine from Kharkiv via Dnipro and the Dnieper river down to Crimea. It plays well at home and he does not need or want the whole of Ukraine and all the problems that would bring.

In the past the old communist eastern bloc countries acted like a buffer zone between Russia and the West.
These days a lot of those ex communist countries are in the EU or are at least closer to the West and further away from Russia than they were.
NATO is expanding towards the Russian border and the Russians don't like it.

A comment I saw the other day about NATO moving closer to Russia's border said that if Russia takes the whole of Ukraine the border will be NATO / Russia, which kind of defeats the object, hence my thinking about occupying the East / Donbas only.

Apparently Ukraine wants to joint NATO. However, I did read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it is in dispute with another nation. So maybe Russia is just flexing its muscles. I hope so.

Aye, the border conundrum. If Ukraine joins NATO (unlikely) the border is between NATO and Russia. If Russia invades the whole of Ukraine the border is.... between NATO and Russia. Same, same.

Except that if Ukraine joins NATO, NATO has direct land access to the Russian border and a reason for a significant navy presence in the black sea.

If I were Putin, or Russian, neither of those would please me.

If it wanted so, NATO already has access to the Black Sea ports through its members Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. It does not really need Odesa as well.

My thinking is that if NATO gets involved it will persuade (and help) the Ukrainians to set up a line 30km or so West of the main road from Dnipro to Kharkiv with "Do not cross" signs. Ukraine has essentially already lost control of the major areas east of that line - Donetsk, Mariupol and Luhansk so would probably agree.

Putin will agree because he does not want the whole of Ukraine and so a new border will be put in place. Ukraine, like Belarus, would be the new buffer zone.