Ebola game changer?

[Workingman]

The problem with mutations is that they can go either way. Experts are warning that the number of cases could be 1.4 million by January. There is little sign of the virus weakening and doctors at thes cene are warning that numbers [will] double every 20 to 30 days.

The Americans are now acting with extreme caution. The number of people being monitored has reached 100, and rising. With an incubation period of up to 21 days these people are going to be out of action for three weeks.

Not only does it mean 100 jobs not being done, it also paralyses a neighbourhood through fear, even though the risk is almost non-existent. Imagine what the outcome could have been if as few as five people on the Dallas plane were infected but only showed symptoms after a few days.

This shows some of the reactions so far, from an American perspective.

[Suff]

Given that the US has dozens of media outlets which make the DM sound like a tame pussycat when trumpeting "The end is nigh", I'm not surprised at the response. However, fear is good. Fear kills this kind of disease faster than drugs.

I note the comment about 1.4m. Because it's "Doubling every 30days". When I go back and look at the stats, only Liberia and Sierra Leone are in that track. Guinea is already below the trend and Nigeria and Senegal are completely stable. Sierra Leone has said they will continue with the curfews until they get it under control. Which I'm sure they will.

What the West needs to understand is the scale of populations between Africa and the West and what they perceive as "disaster levels" against what we see. After all, between half and 1 Million Rwandans were massacred in 100 days. Who even blinked at the time?

Time will tell here. I note that the victim in the US is concious, aware and asking for food. If he were infected by an index case he would now be heading down the path to death and shortly to be in a coma.

Whilst good protection should be taken. Probably blocking free transit of people from the infected countries to the rest of the world. It is not a mad panic thing right now. The patient had helped move a dying woman in the last day of her disease. Almost certainly got blood on him in the process and was infected.

The disease is so fragile that in open daylight it can only last seconds unless there is a lot of it like in blood transfer. Having read a lot about the disease, the major danger of it going pneumonic is in the first 2 or 3 iterations of the virus. We're long past that and I'd suspect that any significant mutation to go pneumonic would only weaken it more.

BTW I work in Brussels so we'll see if my lack of Panic is warranted or not in the next few weeks or months.....

[Workingman]

When I asked about the diagnosis in Dallas I was not questioning the Ebola virus, its strengths and weaknesses, what it looks like or how it behaves. I was wondering how the West would view an outbreak in its back yard.

The Americans failed at the first hurdle and could pay a big price for that failure. The man reported himself to the hospital two days after becoming ill. He was given antibiotics and sent home. Two days after that he was hospitalised with full blown Ebola.

There was a four day window when he was free to roam. Nobody is sure how many contacts he made in that time, and because of that the Dallas authorities have rounded up a monitoring group of about one hundred. Those people will have to be held for at lead the 21 day incubation maximum. During that time the Americans will be hoping beyond hope that nobody outside of the monitoring group shows signs of infection. If they do then the whole exercise in preventing the spread will have to be done all over again.

A reasonably small outbreak in the West could paralyse an area, a city. My bet is that from now on anyone coming from W.Africa who reports themselves as ill will not be sent home with a bottle of antibiotics tablets - better to be safe than sorry.

[Diflower]

Another one diagnosed and to be flown home (US)
Not an aid worker but a news freelancer
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/0 ... d=webmail1

[Suff]

I was wondering if I’m seeing a trend starting here.

First a West African man with family in the US puts himself horribly at risk trying to help a pregnant woman. Who dies. Does he get scared, lie on his forms and head to the US where he knows that there he is more likely to get treatment. Or does he stay and take his chances.

Then we have a freelance American journalist. Who joins a US paper just days before he is diagnosed. Did he already have symptoms? He’s been out of the US 3 years, would he have been able to get back if he was infected? As part of a newspaper he’s got a much better chance of being taken back to the US and treated.

Is this the beginning of the Exodus of those with enough nous to get out, before they show infection. So they can get treated? It seems to me that the basic hospital services are breaking down with the volume of sick. As such people are going to be looking for a way out.

If that is the case, then the rest of the world needs to be exceptionally careful in who they allow to travel from the infected countries. It might also be the beginning of the end for the virus. Once they start to run away, then it starts to die down. It has already begun to frighten people enough that they won’t even help children of dying parents, even if they are neighbours.

[TheOstrich]

If that is the case, then the rest of the world needs to be exceptionally careful in who they allow to travel from the infected countries.

Which is an interesting comment given that the UK Government has just permitted the resumption of direct flights from Gatwick to Freetown, Sierra Leone by the airline Gambia Bird.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... n-corridor

Now one can see that, yes, it certainly helps medical experts and staff to reach Ebola affected areas, but who is going to be coming back, and by what lunacy are they allowing them to fly to / from Gatwick of all places? Why not Brize Norton or some other remote RAF base where arrivals can be strictly controlled or quarantined?

[Kaz]

[Suff]

I would suggest that it is time for a 21 day quaranteen for anyone coming from the area. Anyone who goes out there needs to sign up for it before hand....

But, of course, the one thing you don't need to be a politician (or a civil servant apparently), is common sense....

[Workingman]

This article shows what a game-changer it has already become. Recent comments indicate that it may be too late to prevent at least some damage to public confidence in the adequacy of the US preparedness.

The American press is already having a field day over the way the incident has been handled, and not only in Dallas - no agency is given a clean bill of health. However, if you go to the comments you can also read of the damage to the confidence of the people, real people, in the individuals and agencies set up to protect them. You will also see how fragile society is and the blame games being used: black v white; rich v poor; neighbourhood v neighbourhood.....

I suppose it is not suprisijng when you get this sort of assurance from Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

While the CDC may not be able to contain this outbreak at just one case, he says, the US will "stop Ebola in its tracks".

With reassurance like that who needs scare stories or conspiracy theories?

[Suff]

With reassurance like that who needs scare stories or conspiracy theories?

He's not a politician. He is a Doctor. He knows the steps the US would have to take in order to stop Ebola "in it's tracks". After all he has to write and update them, then present them to the government.

He knows that the most powerful tool he has, to stop Ebola, is public fear allied to public knowledge.

He doesn't want people to be comforted. He wants them to be scared for their very lives.