So where are we?

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Re: So where are we?

Postby Workingman » 01 Mar 2023, 12:12

True.

My original thinking was that using the words 'unbelievably special position' for NI pushes a door open slightly - or opens a can of worms. Loose talk and all that.

Polls now show that something like 55% to 60% think B was wrong, but they also show that there is not really any desire for a Rejoin referendum - only 24% of the ~60% want that in the next decade or so. However, entering the single market might be more popular and Sunak's words could open more of a debate on that matter.

As I said in my OP, if it is good enough for NI it should be good enough for the UK and many people will now be thinking likewise.
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Re: So where are we?

Postby Suff » 01 Mar 2023, 20:28

Yes but NI is already tied by the GFA and forced into the CJEU And Commission directives.

The UK is not so the UK would have to revert back to that state before any of the "benefits" NI can see would be available.

That's the part which gets missed all the time. NI is not the same as the rest if the UK in terms of it's relationship with the EU and therefore options open to NI are not open to the rest of the UK.

There is nothing simple about any of it. However the longer it goes on, the more children will have grown up outside the EU as opposed to inside it. For them joining the EU will be something which has to be justified and not the other way around. Give it another 20 years and most people in their 30's will never remember anything else.

Now the boot is on the other foot. The longer the can is kicked down the road (no desire to change the status quo), the harder it is for people in their 20's to identify with anything other than a fully independent UK. We know that politicians are really good at kicking the can down the road.

So whilst Sunak might want to open the debate. Actually doing something about it is another matter entirely.
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Re: So where are we?

Postby Workingman » 01 Mar 2023, 22:56

Oh do give it a rest. CJEU directives and NI's position does not make them binding in the same way as they do a member state, which NI is not. See recent events for details.

Many non EU countries partake in the single market, including Norway, Iceland, some Balkan states and other accession candidates - they have no problems. Stop making out that the UK could never be included.

As for your claim that in 20 years people will look back and never remember what we had. You are right, they will look back and wonder how totally 'king stupid we were to have left.

BTW, being in the EU single market does not stop non EU members from making bilateral trade deals with other non members. Just thought that I would mention it.
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Re: So where are we?

Postby Suff » 02 Mar 2023, 08:41

Workingman wrote:Many non EU countries partake in the single market, including Norway, Iceland, some Balkan states and other accession candidates - they have no problems. Stop making out that the UK could never be included.


They all suffer from the same thing. You access the markets you accept CJEU decisions and commission directives.

As for other bilateral trade deals? They are also subject to Commission and CJEU decisions.

NI is in this position, the rest of the UK is not. It is why the separation took so long.

This is not banging a drum or doing down the EU. This is a simple fact of life. It is the bargain you make in exchange for full access to the EU markets.

Every other trade deal sets up independent arbiters to oversee the deal. Only the EU demands that the Commission and the CJEU are the final arbiters of all trade disputes. It is why CETA took so long, because Canada refused that and they had to agree to neutral oversight.

I am not blind to the benefits as I am not blind to how the EU works.

But let us face facts, the EU is growing slowly with weak growth, it is the third largest economy in the world and if India ever gets its act together fully it will become the fourth. CPTPP, onece UK, South Korea and Taiwan succession happens, will be larger than the EU. If the US ever rejoins it will be so large that nobody will be able to compete with it on a level field.

These are the realities of the world the UK is now trading in. The focus on the EU needs to be put in its proper perspective. That of One large market to whom we can trade with. Not The large market. Its slow growth also makes it a poor target for UK growth. If the UK wishes to grow its economy more rapidly it needs to look away from the EU and to places in the world which are also growing more rapidly.

When you take off the shackles you need to run free. There was this big argument during the slave days about how slaves were "safe" because their owners fed and housed them. When they were freed they suddenly had to fend for themselves in the world and many did extremely well.

The parallel is not exactly the same but it is close enough that it has to be seen.

The biggest opportunities facing the UK are without the EU, not within it. If we wish to partake of these opportunities, the last thing we want to do is bind ourselves any closer to the EU. That only has one path.
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Re: So where are we?

Postby Workingman » 02 Mar 2023, 14:54

Except that we CAN be in the EU single market AND still trade with the RoW. It is also true that whoever we do deals with we both have to follow rules, ours and theirs, and even WTO ones. The same also goes with the CPTPP, not on our doorstep, but half way round the world. If CETA hamstrung Canada's trade with the RoW if would never have come into force. Strawman.

Try taking the EU blinkers off. We were never slaves when in the EU, if anything we were one of the slave masters, a rather tasteless parallel tbh. Stop making out that being in the single market would hold us back.
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Re: So where are we?

Postby Suff » 02 Mar 2023, 19:44

OK I will keep my view on that to me. Yes I am biased, I admit it. :mrgreen: I'll try to keep it in check...
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