Sauce for the Goose

[Workingman]

What Airbus and BMW, and others, do in the EU is their problem, we will have left, gone, got out. Isn't that the whole idea?

However, the more than 18,000 jobs (a conservative figure) we will have lost, plus all the other losses, will be in our isolated economy. We are talking the numbers of those affected in the size of a city such as Coventry. They are not bar staff or checkout operators, they are, as you point out, "some of the most skilled and advanced people in the world".

What should they do? Move to the EU or "suck it up, we won" as the winners keep on telling us.

[Suff]

What Airbus and BMW, and others, do in the EU is their problem, we will have left, gone, got out. Isn't that the whole idea?

No it is not their problem. Given that we OWN 1/4 of Airbus. No that is the very simplistic "so what we'll be gone" model which is then used to try and scare people in the UK into doing what the EU wants.

Airbus will lose €BILLIONS if the EU does not sort something out about allowing the UK to continue producing airbus parts.

Even after we leave, the UK will still own 1/4 of Airbus and we'll still be manufacturing parts for the planes. Because we will OWN 1/4 of Airbus even after we leave.

Next, the point is you don't just create a wing manufacturing facility in 3 months. It takes about 5-10 years to get that sorted out. So, what, Airbus will stop making planes for a few years because they won't have the wings to fly them?

This is stupid and it is childish and I simply won't have it. This stuff about Airbus and 14k jobs going in April 2019 is the stuff of fantasy. Because we'd put about 100,000 people out of work in Italy, France and Germany and that is NOT going to happen.

So please stop reiterating that FUD fantasy of the Remainers. It's bad enough when the press and the CBI trot it out, worse when it is repeated.

Just think sensibly. The EU is going to lose €13bn A Year when we go. So they're going to make sure that Airbus losses €1bn A WEEK in a fit of pique because they don't like us??? Honestly, when did people stop learning to reason? Airbus can't afford to lose even €5bn a year. In fact the WTO just allowed the US To sanction the EU for about€3bn because the EU propped up Airbus illegally against Boeing.

This has about as much reality as Grieve collapsing the government. Worth a thought that. We're hearing Not One Single Peep about the Government collapsing today. It vanishes. Because it was not true. So now we are going to lose 18,000 jobs. Next frightener. We lose more jobs in Shipbuilding IN the EU. We were looking at losing 46,000 jobs in Steel IN the EU.

Don't try and scare me about 18,000 jobs in one of the most specialised industries in the WORLD where the UK is a key leader.

[jenniren]

Brexit was NOT all about immigration. It was about a combination of jobs, money, illegals, attitude, legal immigration and sheer utter contempt. Yes if you bring one of those to the fore, then the Brexiteers will rip it to shreds. However most Brexiteers are looking at many more things than simply immigration. It is about Sovereignty, pride, unaccountable governments, a hell of a lot of money and high handed attitudes.

You've explained exactly why I voted for Brexit Suff.

[medsec222]

That sums it up for me as well Suff.

[Workingman]

The UK does not OWN 1/4 of Airbus, not even close. Airbus UK was a wholly owned subsidiary of EADS one of five divisions in Airbus Industrie. It was made up of Hawker-Siddely, AVRO, De Havilland, Bristol AC and others (as BAC) and later morphed into BAe. BAe handed over some of it manufacturing facilities to EADS for a 20% share, but sold its shares back to EADS some years ago.

Airbus SE, the current parent company's shareholders are: France ~11%, Germany ~11%, Spain ~ 5% Global also at ~5%. The next two largest shareholders are at ~2.5% and all of the rest are below 2%.

When it comes to relocating facilities the time of 3 months is a straw-man, as is the 5-10 year claim. That might be the case when setting up a new facility for a whole new product, but for relocating or replicating an existing factory in a new place it is nothing like. It would also be the case that including new technology in the new factory could increase productivity - an appealing factor for the owners.

When it comes to influence, should Airbus retrench to the EU, the UK would have as much influence as it has with Boeing and GM in the US or Toyota and Sony in Japan - on the outside looking in.

When it comes to repeating Project Reality it has to be done as a counterpoint to the Brexiteers' vision of the sunny uplands of Brexitopia where unicorns gambol in Arcadian meadows and mermaids frolic in crystal clear waters, except that Project Reality has some basis in fact.

[Suff]

When it comes to repeating Project Reality it has to be done as a counterpoint to the Brexiteers' vision of the sunny uplands of Brexitopia where unicorns gambol in Arcadian meadows and mermaids frolic in crystal clear waters, except that Project Reality has some basis in fact.

True, but there is no Project Reality. There is Project Strident. Strident Leaver and Strident Remainer. Because reality does not sell newspapers. Reality is what is going on right now with the EU.

OK so I stand corrected, we don't own 1/4 or 1/5th of Airbus, old information which was never corrected.

However. Let us put this to the statistical test.

So Airbus just need to build a new wing plant and it is all over. Great. Let's see what the US news has to say about the Airbus Wing plant in Wales??

Airbus wing plant is a model of robotic technology

Designed for wings

Airbus puts together its wings in a $520 million state-of-the-art facility here that John Gillbanks, head of Airbus A350 wing production, says is “specifically designed for automated wing assembly.”

OK so half a billion and a very new specific build for building wings.

And Boeing?

With the large wing parts being fabricated on site in a new, highly automated $1 billion building

OK so we're up to $1bn.

But, what about the process Airbus uses?

Airbus’ composite parts are fabricated at facilities scattered widely around Europe, in England, Scotland, Germany and Spain

And let us not forget Broughton where the main assembly is done. The UK is the most efficient as the parts form Scotland and England come by Truck. The remainder of the journeys are done by plane from Spain, to the UK, to Germany and from Germany to France.

Tres facile, n'est-ce pas?

The journey in short...

The complex logistics of Airbus A350 wing production


A350 composite wing spars are delivered to the wing-assembly plant in Wales by truck from England (1) and Scotland (2) and the wing skins by the Airbus Beluga special air transport from Spain (3) and Germany (4).

The Beluga ferries the almost-completed wings one at a time from Wales to Germany (5) for finishing and from there to France (6) for aircraft final assembly.

Can you spell Barking Mad? Yep it is spelt "EU Political Manufacturing".

As far as I can work out, Boeing started work in late 2014 on their 1.3 million square foot facility and went into production with it, at the end of 2017.

One thing you can be fairly certain of is that you won't just "get" 1.3 million sq feet of space in and around Hamburg, right next to the existing facilities. You could probably get it in Spain, but nobody wants to leave themselves hostage to Spanish Union action.

This is to build a state of the art production facility with Exactly the same Electroimpact state of the art manufacturing processes. At German labour rates and subject to the German works council on all things Union.

So, Airbus says that if the EU throws a fit of pique and removes all EU certification from all UK manufactured Aerospace parts, Airbus is going to stop manufacturing wings for their planes, they're going to take a €1bn hit a week for 3 years, whilst they build a brand new state of the art wing manufacturing facility and two additional factories to build the spars, struts and fuel tanks for the wings. Then they are going to carry on with the same stupid political ferrying of parts around the EU to keep politicians happy.

All to "stick it" to the UK for daring to vote for Brexit.

I've read less far fetched Science Fiction!

[Workingman]

Have you been to Boeing in Seattle?

The site is massive. Workers get from place to place by shuttle bus or golf type buggies. It has parts brought in from all over the US in planes and trucks and by rail - all border and tariff free. The US is more than twice the size of the EU. So when it comes to ferrying parts Boeing and Airbus are not that much different.

I also notice that its wing site for the 777 model, the $1billion mentioned, took 14 months of construction work, not 5-10 years. Yes there would have been planning, but it was for a new product and in the future it will be used for other models. But Airbus in the EU could not possibly do that, eh?

Airbus do not have to stop making wings if they build a new site. We will not leave till March 2019 and then, if the stories are true, there will be an implementation period of two years or more. Plenty of time for them to sort out wings, but what do we do? Start a whole new aircraft industry?

[AliasAggers]

Most Brexiteers are looking at many more things than simply immigration.
It is about Sovereignty, pride, unaccountable governments, a hell of a lot of money and high handed attitudes.

That's exactly why I voted for Brexit, too.

[Suff]

Airbus do not have to stop making wings if they build a new site. We will not leave till March 2019 and then, if the stories are true, there will be an implementation period of two years or more. Plenty of time for them to sort out wings, but what do we do? Start a whole new aircraft industry?

As for the implementation time, I saw from Dec 2014 to mid 2017 to have one of the three autoclaves up and running, with more to be put in place. Granted the Autoclaves already exist in different factories in Europe.

The point here is that Airbus said it would lose €1bn a Week and put 14,000 jobs at risk in the UK, IF, mark you, we have Hard Brexit.

Let me just quantify Hard Brexit. It cuts in on March 30th 2019 and all treaties, certifications and everything else we gained under the EU, cease to apply from that date (although I have my doubts about that, China are not in the EU but have certifications to manufacture to the EU standards).

So, according to Airbus, as of March 30th, 2019, they can no longer accept the wings we make. Therefore they don't make planes and incur €1bn per week in costs, fines and contractual obligations.

Let us be wildly optimistic and assume that the US company can get all the automation technology built and delivered in 6 months and that they can build a factory in Spain or Germany to take that equipment, in 6 months and they can source 800 top specialists in carbon fibre wing manufacture in 6 months and that they can get the manufacturing facilities built and staff sourced to replace the English and Scottish factories in 6 months. After ALL of that, they will ONLY have incurred €26bn in penalties and contractual obligations.

Two full years of the Entire contributions of the UK to the Entire EU.

A mere bagatelle for a company that makes planes.

Is it not?

Or is it just hot air and hype to try and damage the UK negotiating position with the EU Commission?

Let's apply Occam's razor shall we.

[Suff]

Most Brexiteers are looking at many more things than simply immigration.
It is about Sovereignty, pride, unaccountable governments, a hell of a lot of money and high handed attitudes.

That's exactly why I voted for Brexit, too.

As did everyone I know that voted to Leave. I do not know one single person who voted to Leave because the Vote Leave Bus said we'd pay £360M per week into the NHS. Nobody. Not One person I have ever spoken to who voted Leave.

So reiterating the Vote Remain assertion that Vote Leave voters are, in general, a bunch of Naïf idiots does not engender the Remain cause to those voters.

I'm not saying that some people did _not_ vote the hype. I'm sure that some did. But the bulk of the vote and, I believe, the bulk of the people who make up that majority, did not.

It is completely impossible to get a clean and balanced view out of the press/media today.

I take some solace from the fact that our government is determined to follow the direction of the majority of the people and to take us out of the EU. Once we are out of the EU, it becomes a totally different question.

Why?

Because once we actually leave in 2019, transition period or not, we will have to actually apply to join again.

Any Government which tries to get the UK back into the EU without a referendum will be destroyed for decades. So there will be a referendum.

In that referendum the Government trying to get us back in will have to sell:

The Euro
Schengen
Full adherence to the ECJ
Full adherence to the EU HRA
No Rebates on the budget

Now, go back to the Remainers and ask then how many actually WANT all of that. My take? Less than 40%.

We are leaving. All of this is noise. Once we have left, we are never coming back.

What Remain needs to do is GET OVER it and help the country to move on and adjust to the changes.

When history is written, 50 years from now, the Remainers will be documented as the most damaging movement the UK has ever seen. Bar none. Perhaps they might want to think about that.