The silence rolls on

[Suff]

And the politicians think it’s all a done deal bar the horsetrading according to the Telegraph.

The Telegraph makes some salient points, especially about whether Scots MP’s can hold certain ministerial roles when their home country is already blocking UK wide financial changes. There was much made about losing the £ but, if Scotland starts making tax decisions incompatible with the UK as a whole, England may have to force Scotland out of the £ anyway, in order to protect it. Because the value of the £ is always a combination of economic output and fiscal responsibility.

In fact if they give full tax raising (and by definition spending), powers to Scotland then they have created exactly the same situation as they denied they would allow in the event of a yes vote. That Scotland was in the £ but able to control its own taxation. Granted interest rates would still be under the power of Threadneedle street, so it is kind of a half-way house.

Also the article failed to address the fact that Gordon Brown has decided to leave politics. Perhaps in the same mould as his former boss who clearly realised that his time in UK politics was over and decided to switch power for money. For Brown leaving politics saves him from the ignominy of losing his seat at the next election. Perhaps losing the election has made him a little more aware of how much damage losing his seat would do to his job prospects. He might get a job as chief rat catcher, but not for long. The place would be overrun with rats.

Another point the article fails to address is the fact that the SNP may, just possibly, hold more than 50% of Scottish Westminster seats and Scottish Parliament seats at the same time, come 2016. A message made in hell for the unionists…

As ever the myopic press focus on UKIP and their ability to upset the apple cart in the coming election. As ever, they completely ignore the ramifications of the SNP who could, possibly, be even more of a wildcard in May.

I’ve been going on about this, every now and again, for a while now. It’s not “over”. It was “never” over and the fact that the independence question for Scotland is clearly not over is going to have major ramifications at the next general election. You can be sure that if the Telegraph is going on about how little influence Scotland will have left in the UK after they have finally mashed out some form of “MadMax”, the Scottish pro Independence papers will be reminding the Scots daily.

Simply put, Devo Max is independence by the back door. Really all that the “promise” did was to ensure Scottish independence within the next generation. That’s why Cameron did not want it on the docket. It’s why the three stooges should never have promised it.

However, it’s going to make for one of the most interesting general elections of my lifetime; come May…

[Workingman]

I wish that I had bookmarked something I was reading the other day. It was a series of scenarios of what might be the result of the 2016 general election. Not one of them gave an overall majority to any party; every one pointed to coalitions of two or more parties or an attempt at minority government.

The most interesting ones were those where the SNP, UKIP and 'Others' managed to gain 60+ seats between them. There was going to have to be a lot of horse trading and it was felt that those at the margins would have quite a few red lines not to be crossed. Any coalition would not be of the cosy ConDem sort and any of the major parties would have to agree terms or face the beak-up of the coalition.

Given what is happening in Scotland, with the rise of the SNP and the fall of ScotLab, there could be a situation where the SNP finds itself in a position to lead where the UK is headed. Wouldn't that be ironic?

[Suff]

This one I'm guessing WM

Interesting contrast with September Last year.

Looks like someone will be running down the street naked....

It's likely to be very interesting. My take is I need the Tories to be the biggest single party but with no overall majority. I also need UKIP to have at least 20 seats...

I'd like the Lib Dems to have 0 seats but that's sort of unrealistic. So I'll settle for 5....