Car buying reality in the UK

[Suff]

Once again BEV (battery EV), grows strongly in the UK March figures. Mainly due to Tesla quarterly deliveries.
Up 78% yoy for the month and 101%YoY for the year to date.

I can only see this growing. When the government sets a target date for cut off for ICE, even a decade out or more, manufacturers start to sell to the incoming new market.

Just as we saw in Norway. As we get within 10 years of 2035, this will start to impact the (x)EV categories (hybrids). I notice they now have MHEV, PHEV and HEV. I see these vehicles as the "do nothing" vehicles. Yes they look good on the government stats on combatting climate change. But in the long run they do nothing about the problem.

The MOST intersting thing for me is that BEV are 34% of pure ICE sales in March and 32% of pure ICE sales yoy.



Also Tesla takes the top slot for the month.



The more important point is the MY is top of the list and is gaining on the YTD top seller.

It will be a very good thing to watch how Giga Berlin impacts that figure over 2022. Not much to start I would assume, but by September we may see a difference.

[cromwell]

The truth is that atm a lot of people don't like EV's and don't want them either.
The crunch point hasn't arrived yet, where people are forced to abandon ICE cars. When it arrives there are going to be a lot of unhappy voters around.

[Suff]

Let me give you another set of figures from the SMMT site.



You will note that private sales are up 22% yoy. Fleet sales are down 22% yoy. The equivalent for March is 8% up for private and 34% down for fleet.

Yet if you look at the sales figures, Battery EV are up 101% and 78% for YoY and March respectively.

Meanwhile Diesel is down 51% YoY and Petrol 15%.

In short, the only sales going up are electric and it is "people", not companies, who are driving it.

Even more, as EV's are more expensive than corresponding ICE vehicles, "people" have decided to shell out more for their new EV's instead of buying a new ICE.

Whilst one month twists the figures, especially since Tesla makes up a large chunk of EV sales in the UK and only delivers bulk once a quarter, the quarterly figures do not lie. New car sales are trending to electric and where people make a conscious choice, they are going Battery. Otherwise they are being pushed for "hybrid" as that gets the manufacturers out of the 95g fine bracket. It's all a con, but it is where things are moving.

Just as in Norway, where they set 2025 as the cut over for no longer being able to sell ICE, the move to EV will speed up now. Norway doesn't transition until 2025 but EV vehicle sales were almost hitting 90% late 2021. They are expected to well exceed 90% in 2022 as supply ramps up for them. It was only really supply which was lacking. Now Tesla has their Berlin plant up and running, that supply will start to grow in volume taking the rest of the industry with it.

Essentially nobody wants to get stuck with a 3 year old ICE when all new sales have to be EV. Prices will crash. Although I expect enterprising firms to spring up and buy "cheap" Norwegian ICE cars to resell in Germany, France, etc. Were I in the business I'd already be working on it.

The trend is set. Vehicles with Internal Combustion engines in them are on a track to oblivion. As soon as the general population works it out, they are toast.

So, really, who should you be voting for? Someone who says "EV's are a myth", or someone who says "I'm going to build hundreds of thousands of charge points for all these new EV's".

There are other changes happening in Norway. I've been watching this for years now and I've heard all the arguments. 7kw and 22kw are all you need, faster is only for people in a hurry.

Reality? Norway is transitioning from 22kw as the base level for charging infrastructure to 50kw. With 50kw you can add 85 miles to your battery in 30 minutes. Stop off for a burger, go shopping for half an hour, you have another 4 days driving in your car.

We are about to enter a world where people need to know more about their vehicles, how and when to charge them and where to charge them. Simply lifting the nozzle and pressing the lever is not going to work any more and people will adjust. Just as when cars first came out drivers needed to know a LOT more about their vehicles than we know today.

The nice thing is finding out that there are so many people who want to know.