Is it really Brexit we should fear?

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Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby Suff » 21 Jun 2016, 19:01

If Remain wins the day after tomorrow, then we will remain in the EU. With a fatally divided government, a Prime Minister under fire and the EU well aware that they can say and do, almost anything they want and we'll just take it. After all, a second referendum will take at least another decade to arrange no matter what they do. And, remember, they know this and will be opening the treaties for change within this decade. They will know that they can have almost anything they want and the UK will put up with it.

All the stuff that was hidden will come out of the woodwork. Turkey deal, Switzerland referendum, Dutch intransigence over Ukraine. All the divisions that have been hidden, all the overbearing things that need to be done to "shore up" a sinking Euro, all will burst into life within either hours or days.

The last thing I want to see are millions of Brits sitting there saying "I was lied to", 3 weeks after the referendum.

I've seen this anger before. It manifested itself in the crushing defeat of the traditional parties in Scotland leaving them with a one party state for interaction with Westminster and the rest of the UK. Whilst we saw a much more balanced view in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, this divide does not exist for the UK.

Honestly if all the main parties are shown to have been lying their asses off for the whole campaign, selling stories of doom and gloom which were both overblown and, simply put, scare tactics; plus quite literally lying about what will happen in the EU if we stay..... Then voter reaction is going to be, well, volcanic.

Then the reaction, come the next election, especially in England, could be absolutely massive. UKIP could virtually sweep up every seat not solidly nailed down with a 15,000 majority or more and even a few of them too.

Do we need to fear the status quo more than launching ourselves into the unknown. Because what people think they "know" is nothing but a pack of half truths, careful lies and outright howlers. Only those who have actually done the research for themselves will know the truth and the vast majority of them are already behind Brexit.

We now have just over 48 hours to put up with the "politicking". Then it's all over. Probably for the worse no matter what we decide.

If ever there was a case of Hobson's choice, I believe this is it. In the end we'll be choosing the lesser of two evils (as they are presented).

What on earth happened to choosing for good?
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby TheOstrich » 21 Jun 2016, 19:12

Suff wrote:If Remain wins the day after tomorrow, then we will remain in the EU. With a fatally divided government, a Prime Minister under fire and the EU well aware that they can say and do, almost anything they want and we'll just take it. After all, a second referendum will take at least another decade to arrange no matter what they do. And, remember, they know this and will be opening the treaties for change within this decade. They will know that they can have almost anything they want and the UK will put up with it.


Given that scenario, within two years, Cameron will be toppled from within, we'll have a no-confidence vote triggering a general election (I gather that is allowed under the fixed term parliament rule), producing in turn a much more pro-Brexit Tory Government, and a second referendum will follow within 12 months of that.

Additionally / alternatively, the margin of the Remain victory will be so miniscule, and the EU will have received such a fright, that it might just start to take the notion of "reform" seriously .....
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby Suff » 21 Jun 2016, 19:31

TheOstrich wrote:Additionally / alternatively, the margin of the Remain victory will be so miniscule, and the EU will have received such a fright, that it might just start to take the notion of "reform" seriously .....


That and other fairy stories available for purchase, going cheap, at your local children's book shop.... :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby TheOstrich » 21 Jun 2016, 19:50

:mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Well, we live in hope ....
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby Workingman » 21 Jun 2016, 19:58

To paraphrase ...

If Leave wins the day after tomorrow, then we will be out of the EU. With a fatally divided government, a Prime Minister under fire and the EU well aware that they can say and do, almost anything they want knowing there is sod all we can do about it.

I think I'll flip a coin in the voting booth to see which version I go for ... I am now that disinterested.
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby Suff » 21 Jun 2016, 20:25

Equally true.

But, for me, standing on our own two feet making our own decisions, as the fifth largest economy in the world and the 4th largest (including nuclear), military power in the world, is the best way to make our own way in the world.

Forget immigration, forget short term economic impact, in the end it comes down to whether we want to be the California of the EU state.

Flip a coin, make a choice, whatever happens it's not going to be good for us in the short term.

My take is that there is only one choice which will prepare us to be strong for the long term.
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Re: Is it really Brexit we should fear?

Postby Aggers » 21 Jun 2016, 20:34

Workingman wrote:I think I'll flip a coin in the voting booth to see which version I go for ... I am now that disinterested.


All I can say is that I have never before been so disheartened at the behaviour of our political leaders, and
I really am glad that I'm not a young person who will have to witness the long-term outcome of this sordid
business.
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